http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/17 2026-06-02T22:27:30Z 2026-06-02T22:27:30Z Safiatou, Mariko http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1169 2026-05-14T13:22:20Z 2025-02-01T00:00:00Z

Climate change impact on the energy sector and sustainable supply in line with the Malian National Determined Contribution (NDCs). Safiatou, Mariko The sustainability of countries' energy systems requires long-term energy planning. Energy is key to the sustainable development of the modern world and indispensable to maintaining long-term energy planning. Energy systems are greatly affected by climate change, which is projected to alter countries and cities’ energy demand and supply systems. Global warming is projected to affect energy systems. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) effect increasing is already changing the world’s climate, increasing atmospheric temperatures, and affecting the land surface, with precipitation patterns changing at the same time as the energy systems. Long-term energy systems and adapted policies to fight against climate change are required. This thesis focuses on long-term energy planning in the context of the changing climate and the various energy policies put in place to adapt and mitigate climate change. The thesis presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the country's energy systems in response to longer-term energy supply sustainability. It looks at the general context of energy systems (supply and generation); moreover, it looks at the sustainability of the current and future energy supply and projects the impact of climate change on different climate energy parameters (precipitation, wind, short wave radiation, sunshine duration, etc.) that affect energy generation. Afterward, the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to project the mid- and long-term climate change impact on the Malian energy system. This research assesses the impacts of climate change on energy systems using the climate projections from CORDEX GCMs driven by RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents a more moderate pathway of greenhouse gas emissions, while the RCP 8.5 scenario represents a high-emission future. These scenarios provide a range of possible climate futures for Mali. The results of the study indicate that under both selected scenarios, there will be significant variation in the analysed climate-energy parameters, causing the instability of renewable energy production systems, hence the instability of energy systems and the country's energy supply. The findings show a decrease in precipitation, which could impact hydropower generation. Additionally, there will be a decrease in wind speeds, potentially affecting wind energy production. Furthermore, there will be an increase in temperature, leading to higher cooling demand and increased strain on the energy system. Overall, the findings show how crucial it is to structure the energy system and energy policies in order to sustainably transition to renewable energy sources and effectively minimise the effects of climate change on energy production in Mali. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy

2025-02-01T00:00:00Z Mortey, Eric Mensah http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1168 2026-05-14T13:16:18Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Cover Change on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in West Africa Mortey, Eric Mensah The dynamic interaction between climate and land plays an important role in water, hydropower, and food production in West Africa (WA). However, the interaction between climate, land, and water is oversimplified in RCMs, leading to inaccurate predictions of the timing and availability of water resources. Moreover, most hydrological models’ approach to resource management is water-centric based on IWRM frameworks but lacks a strong basis for WEF nexus studies. Furthermore, there is little research to understand the effects of deforestation and afforestation on the local water-food nexus. The first objective of this thesis aims to characterize the relationship between climate variability and land use/land cover change in WA using remote sensing and reanalysis products. The second objective aims to model the relationship between climate variability and land use/land cover change using the WRF-Hydro model. The third objective aims to assess the future impacts of climate change, land use and land cover change, and population growth on the WEF nexus components. Objective one (1) was achieved by analyzing climatic and land cover changes in West Africa. Objective two (2) was achieved by modeling the effects of afforestation and deforestation on the climatological water flow change in the SKB. Objective three (3) was achieved by building a Volta-WEF nexus to quantify future water and hydropower availability indices. The NSE and KGE of WRF-Hydro setup is 0.47 and 0.69, respectively, over the KB compared to the default setup values of -0.34 and 0.2. The Volta-WEF model in WEAP yielded an R2 (NSE) of 0.74–0.85 (0.71–0.79) and 0.7–0.81 (0.66–0.81), respectively, over the calibration and validation periods. Over the 1992–2019 period, an interannual temperature change of 1.0 to 2.0 ℃, and a 50 mm change of precipitation and climatic water balance resulted in 20935–52133 km2 land cover change intensities, while a temperature change of 0.5 ℃ and a precipitation change of 20 mm represented normal climatic conditions with land cover change intensities below 20000 km2. The afforestation experiment yielded approximately 6% more precipitation, 3% more evapotranspiration, 27% more surface runoff, and 16% more underground runoff, while the deforestation experiment yielded 5% less precipitation, 3% less evapotranspiration, 3% less surface runoff, and 9% less underground runoff over the SKB. The future water demand index is estimated at 0.94 to 0.96 for SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 and the future hydropower generation index is between 1.001 and 1.002 for all SSPs, illustrating the water-energy nexus. Future works can consider implementing the climate-land relationship described in this work into RCMs. Moreover, staple crops could be included in the WEF-Volta model to account for food production. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Alio Sanda, Mahamadou Djibrilla http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1167 2026-05-14T13:04:47Z 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z

Photovoltaic Cooling Greenhouse Adapted for Horticulture in the Sahel Alio Sanda, Mahamadou Djibrilla Photovoltaic greenhouse is a breakthrough technology that creates a synergy between agriculture and energy sectors worldwide. In harsh Sahelian environment, conventional greenhouse generates a microclimate that gets saturated and heats up, becoming unbearable for crops. This work aims to develop an effective and affordable cooling photovoltaic greenhouse for year-round horticulture in the Sahel. The study investigated tomatoes production under the microclimate conditions inside a greenhouse in which 20% of the roof area was replaced by photovoltaic panels and the remaining part covered by a green semi-transparent ligno-cellulosic material in order to reduce the intense local solar irradiance. A cellulosic evaporative cooling pads system powered by poly-crystalline modules of 1.56kWp was used to decrease indoor heat. The greenhouse’s microclimate parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and solar irradiance were recorded with the aid of a weather station, thermo-hygrometer sensors installed inside and outside the greenhouse, and the whole greenhouse system thermodynamic behaviour was simulated through computational fluid dynamic (CFD) software (ANSYS). The carbon dioxide (CO2) contents and grown tomatoes physical parameters inside and outside the greenhouse were also regularly measured. While the outside temperature was around 34.2 – 41.6oC with an average relative humidity of 46.13%, the temperature within the greenhouse was around 29 - 32.8oC with an average relative humidity of 72.24%, causing respectively a temperature drop of 5.2 - 8.8oC for an average relative humidity improvement of more than 26%. The thermal heat distribution and flow patterns showed a well-distributed heat around crop’s coverage area in the greenhouse when analysed under CFD. The CFD analysis allowed to notice that when exposed to the highest solar irradiation event (1355.6 w/m2, 34.3oC and 71% relative humidity), the greenhouse cooling system could create a drop of 4.9 oC and an increase of 15% relative humidity. The lowest temperature attained in the greenhouse was 15.7 oC (at night) whereas the highest temperature (in the afternoon) was 37.8oC against 40.8oC outside. The measured CO2 contents (700 - 920 ppm) and solar irradiance (120 - 220 Wm-2) inside the greenhouse are suitable for plant growth and main horticulture crops production under very sunny Sahelian conditions. A simultaneous tomato crop cultivation (Variety Mongal) inside and outside the greenhouse showed that plants inside the greenhouse could reach 190 cm height with leaves size of Length x Width (LxW) = 10x5cm against 70 cm high and LxW = 6x2.5 cm for outside plants’ physical parameters. This situation resulted from the plant photosynthesis improvement due to sufficient carbon dioxide availability under adequate sun irradiance. Tomato fruits inside greenhouse turned from green to deep red at harvesting stage whereas under ambient conditions tomatoes colours turned green, light yellow then red or light red due to extreme conditions. Energy production for cooling averaged around 4199.016 Wh/day despite the observation of 7620.792 Wh/day of energy loss due to full battery state. Optimization is necessary for cost effectiveness of the greenhouse cooling system. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy

2024-05-01T00:00:00Z Ndiaye, Aissatou http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1166 2026-05-14T12:54:26Z 2024-02-05T00:00:00Z

Assessment of Current Climate Services for Energy Resilience in West Africa: the Case of Senegal Ndiaye, Aissatou The rapid growth of renewable energy deployment in West Africa, coupled with the anticipated impacts of climate change on the energy sector, highlights the need to evaluate the effectiveness of climate services in enhancing energy resilience. Climate services (CS) play a crucial role in providing valuable information and insights to support decision-making and contribute to the resilience of the energy sector in the face of climate change impacts. This thesis investigated the performance of CS in the energy sector over West Africa with a focus on Senegal towards an improved resilience and sustainability of the energy sector to climate variability and change. A mixed-methods approach is employed which combines qualitative and quantitative analyses. The qualitative approach used is a semi-structured interview with key stakeholders in the energy and meteorological sectors to acquire a deeper understanding of how climate services are accessed and utilized. The quantitative analysis employs a dual approach which includes using data from regional climate models driven by global climate models to project the future climate change impacts on solar PV and wind energy potential in West Africa and Senegal, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The other approach is to assess the impacts of different shortwave radiation schemes (Dudhia and RRTMG) in the WRF-Solar model for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting in two solar plants in Senegal (Diass and Ten Merina). Two simulations were conducted for the RRTMG scheme, one without aerosol optical depth (AOD) and one with AOD (RRTMG_AOD). The results and outcomes respectively show limited collaboration between the energy and meteorological sectors, resulting in challenges in accessing essential climate-related information for decision-making processes. Projections from regional climate models show a general decline in solar PV potential by approximately -2% in the near future and -4% in the far future across the region. The wind power density (WPD) is anticipated to increase by around 20% in the near future and 40% in the far future. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the RRTMG_AERO scheme outperforms the Dudhia and RRTMG schemes in both solar plants. The RRTMG_AERO scheme demonstrates superior performance across clear sky, cloudy sky, and all-sky conditions, despite notable biases, particularly in cloudy sky conditions. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers, energy sector stakeholders, and meteorological agencies. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy

2024-02-05T00:00:00Z