http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/20 2026-04-23T15:09:14Z 2026-04-23T15:09:14Z Pouye, Ibrahima http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1069 2026-02-18T14:40:04Z 2023-08-04T00:00:00Z

Coastal erosion dynamics of Dakar, Senegal Pouye, Ibrahima The advancing sea resulting from sea level rise, combined with the effects of climate change and hydrodynamic agents, is affecting the coastal morphology of the Dakar region. As a result, a reduction of coastal areas is observed in some coastal zones, causing human displacement inland and disrupting economic activities such as fishing and tourism. Coastal erosion makes the coasts of the Dakar region physically and socio-economically vulnerable. This study analyses the dynamics of the coastline from 1990 to 2040 using Geographic Information System techniques and shows that the region records average retreats of about -0.44 m/year, 0.21 m/year and -0.11 m/year respectively on the northern, western and southern coasts. These dynamic rates are expected to be about -4.4 m/year (for the north coast), 2.1 m/year (for the west coast) and -1.1 m/year by 2030 (south coast). By 2040, they are estimated to be around -8.8 m/year (north coast), 4.2 m/year (west coast) and -2.2 m/year (south coast). These predicted dynamic rates will result in a loss of coastal areas, estimated at 861273 m2 in 2030 and 1256493 m2 in 2040. These forecasts depend on the behavior of hydrodynamic agents and coastal characteristics. They also provide information on the level of vulnerability to coastline dynamics. The physical and socio-economic vulnerability of the Dakar region to coastal erosion was also studied using the Coastal Vulnerability Index method. It is shown that different vulnerability indexes are noted on the northern (94), western (10) and southern (23) coasts. Although the Dakar region is physically vulnerable to coastal erosion, it is essential to note that this vulnerability is accentuated by human activities which make it socio-economically vulnerable. This physical and socio-economic vulnerability also will negatively affect the economic land value of the coast in 2030 and 2040. Thus, the estimate of economic loss by the use of an econometric model shows that the Dakar coastline will record an estimated loss of 38,507,856,000 FCFA in 2030 and 57,822,698,000 FCFA in 2040. These forecasts would make it possible to prevent the impact of coastal erosion by installing protective infrastructure in the most exposed areas. Whether the Dakar region coastline is economically confronted with coastal erosion, abnormal settlements, pollution, sand exploitation aggravate economic losses. Several adaptation measures have been implemented. However, despite the efforts of the Senegalese government to combat coastal erosion, the coastline continues to retreat. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université de Lomé, Togo in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

2023-08-04T00:00:00Z Bassirou, Hassane http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1063 2026-02-13T12:06:41Z 2024-03-01T00:00:00Z

Flood Disasters Risk Assessment and Climate Change Resilience in Niamey – Niger Bassirou, Hassane Climate change has become one of the most pressing environmental issues in recent decades, resulting in a significant increase in rainfall intensity and causing floods in various countries worldwide. Flooding is a natural calamity that, when combined with climate change, can cause severe damage in Niger. The capital city, Niamey, located in the western region of the country, is particularly vulnerable to flooding due to its susceptibility to rainfall, rapid population growth, and uncontrolled urbanization. In response to this problem, a study was conducted to identify, map, and simulate flood risk zones to enhance decision-making for better land use planning in the face of a changing climate. The study aimed to evaluate the degree of socio-economic and environmental threats related to flood disasters in the examined area. The data for the study were collected through a combination of field and archival research, including the use of a questionnaire. The data obtained were analyzed scientifically using frequency distribution tables, basic percentages, graphs, and charts. The study also analyzed the spatiotemporal land use/land cover change in relation to urbanization sprawl based on a series of Landsat images of 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021. Additionally, satellite and GIS data were used, and statistical tools were applied to describe and identify the hydro-climatic causes of floods. The research found that flooding is the most common environmental disaster in the study area, occurring almost yearly and causing significant harm to socio-economic and environmental elements. Excessive rainfall, poor drainage infrastructure, and mismanagement of water reservoirs were identified as the primary causes of the flood disaster. The study also found that disaster management/response agencies are making efforts to respond to the flood threat in the area. However, statistics suggested that these interventions are insufficient in minimizing the hazards and threats of flood disasters in the examined area, with most efforts being aimed at relief and rehabilitative aid for the victims. Therefore, the study highlights the need for all stakeholders to accelerate efforts towards delivering a viable solution to the hazards and threats of flood disasters in the research area through preventive and mitigation measures. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in West African Climate Systems

2024-03-01T00:00:00Z Oyedele, Peter Boluwaji http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1062 2026-02-13T12:02:04Z 2023-05-10T00:00:00Z

Flood Risk and Farming Households’ Decision-Making to Flood Disasters in Kogi State, Nigeria Oyedele, Peter Boluwaji In West Africa, the impacts of flooding are becoming more severe with climate warming. Flood-prone communities in Kogi State in north-central Nigeria are affected by annual flooding and some extreme flood events. The negative impacts remain a major obstacle to development, environmental sustainability, and human security, exacerbating poverty in the region. Within these contexts, the research critically assesses the vulnerability of households to flooding. Also, it explores households’ perception of flood risk, examines the realities and dynamics of adaptation measures employed by households to face floods, and sought to understand the factors and processes that motivate them in deciding to leave or live in flood-prone areas. The study was conducted purposively in 8 local government areas of the State with cases of flood disaster, to evaluate the flood vulnerability of the population using the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe (MOVE) framework. Following this framework, extensive literature review was conducted to develop relevant proxy indicators. Structured questionnaires were used for household surveys to collect data from 400 households in twenty selected communities through purposive sampling methods. These communities were selected purposely because they were reported to be submerged in flood water during the year 2019 disastrous flood events in Kogi State which caused significant damage. The vulnerability factors, exposure, susceptibility, and lack of resilience as well as the overall vulnerability were calculated and compared using the QGIS tool. The study also uses in-depth interviews, participant observation, and 4 focus group discussions with the respondents. Findings show that firstly, the overall vulnerability and the factor of the vulnerability of the studied locations were very high. Susceptibility and exposure factors were found to greatly influence vulnerability, and communities had a high lack of resilience in the face of flood hazards. Thirdly, the results show that farming households are not willing to abandon their land and relocate to the upland because floods were indicated as part of their lives and livelihood strategies. These decisions were largely influenced by the cultural and economic importance of households derived from flood-prone areas. The findings of this study recommend the need to generate flood disaster awareness among the vulnerable populations exposed to flooding through community programs, support them to implement flood preparation and mitigation measures, as well as bridge the gap between local administration and the public by adopting a humanistic approach, which will enable collaborative efforts for effective flood risk reduction/management and increase flood resilience. When and where the resettlement scheme proves very difficult due to strong cultural attachment, flood prevention mechanisms via engineering construction such as dykes, embankments, and ditches should be adopted A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in West African Climate Systems

2023-05-10T00:00:00Z Diarra, Doukoro http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1060 2026-02-13T11:20:23Z 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z

Global Warming and Agro-climatic Risks’ effects on Households Food Security in Mali Diarra, Doukoro The yearly temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are significant variables in Mali. However, from north to south, their distributions are unevenly dispersed. Evapotranspiration and air temperature are expected to rise due to climate change. Additionally, it raises the likelihood of heat waves brought on by droughts and intense rainstorms. Among all hydrologic extremes, drought is regarded as a natural disaster. It seriously harms the ecology, agriculture, and ways of life that rely on water resources. The current study assessed how drought indices changed in the Koutiala and San areas between 1989 and 2019. The MK test has been used to analyze trends in monthly precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. Based on the analysis's findings, the Koutiala and San districts' climate has been categorized as moderate to severe drought. However, this outcome demonstrates changes in SPEI patterns in both districts. In the Koutiala and San districts, the monthly precipitation pattern was noticeably declining. In contrast, both districts' monthly evapotranspiration and temperature showed an upward tendency. The standardized anomaly index (SAI) evaluated the research area's temperature fluctuation. According to the Mann-Kendall test, the mean annual temperature indicated statistically significant warming in each district. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, the Université de Lomé, Togo in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

2023-10-01T00:00:00Z