http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/20 2026-08-06T04:29:50Z 2026-08-06T04:29:50Z Sougue, Madou http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1304 2026-07-29T11:41:42Z 2024-11-21T00:00:00Z

Flood risk and vulnerability of populations’ analysis in Southern, Burkina Faso Sougue, Madou This Thesis seeks to understand the space-time variations of extreme rainfall events, and the assess flood risk and community vulnerability to floods in the southern Burkina Faso. To achieve this, the specific objectives include (i) analyzing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall for better insight of risks associated with flood disaster occurrences in communities, (ii) examining flood-related impacts as much as possible for better awareness and preparedness of flood disaster occurrences, (iii) analyzing flood risk, including perceptions of flood risk and their influencing factors, to increase the resilience of communities that may face flooding situation, and (iv) assessing flood vulnerability using various weighting methods under the definitions of IPCC 2007 and 2014 vulnerability frameworks. As far as the analytical process is concerned, various methods such as extreme value theory modelling, econometric modelling, indicator-based analysis, and statistical tests are performed, integrating both secondary data and household survey data. The results show substantial spatial heterogeneity in rainfall trends across the study area, with more downward than upward trends, particularly for indices representing extreme rainfall. This contrasts with national and supranational studies that primarily identified increasing trends in extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate a strong spatial dependency in extreme rainfall, reaching up to 300 km away and decreasing as the distance between paired sites increases, potentially impacting thousands of people simultaneously. Regarding flood risk, our findings indicate that 12 out of the 14 villages in our sample group have experienced high levels of flood risk. Households pointed out the management of runoff from the nearest urban areas and poorly designed civil engineering infrastructure, such as roads, as significant factors contributing to their increased vulnerability. Furthermore, the results suggest that flood risk perception is largely influenced by informational and behavioural factors among households. The sensitivity analysis of vulnerability to different weighting methods shows that the vulnerability index is less sensitive to whichever equal and Principal Component Analysis weighting methods are considered for assigning weights to indicators. However, the equal weighting method is preferred when dealing with numerous indicators. This thesis could offer valuable insights for disaster risk management authorities, enabling them to allocate resources effectively, plan budgets, and coordinate their actions based on the priorities of areas. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Biodiversity

2024-11-21T00:00:00Z Kissi, Abravi Essenam http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1303 2026-07-29T11:23:42Z 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EbA) Strategies in the Agricultural Sector for Reducing Climate Change Risks in the Savanna Region, Northern-Togo Kissi, Abravi Essenam The Savanna region of Northern Togo is facing degradation of its main agroecosystems due to the decrease in their ecosystem services exacerbated by the increase frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and floods which affect farming communities’ livelihoods and well-being. From the literature, Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) strategy is seen as an effective strategy and its adoption needs to catch up among farmers. The study aims to: (i) examine farmer’s perception of climate change risks in the agroecosystems, (ii) analyze the effectiveness and co-benefits of existing EbA strategies adopted by farmers and (iii) assess the key drivers in farmers’ planning decision to sustain their livelihood in the context of climate change. Climate data (rainfall and temperature from 1961-2021) from Togo Meteorological service, and primary data through participatory workshops, focus group discussions and household survey (425 farmers) were collected to achieve the objectives of the study. Three-stage analysis were conducted in this regard. Firstly, the rainfall anomaly index, and a standardized climate change risk perception index (SCCRPI) were used to analyze climate variability and assess climate change risk perception. Secondly an EbA framework was used to assess the effectiveness and co-benefits of common practices used by farmers in the study area. Three dimensions comprised such EbA framework which are: (i) provision of ecosystem services, (ii)improvement of adaptation benefits, and (iii) improvement of livelihood and food security. Weighted average index was computed to assess farmers’ perception of the three dimensions of EbA practices and key drivers of their assessment using a multiple regression analysis. The third stage of the analysis used the theory of Planned Behavior which aims to examine the decision-making process leading to the adoption of EbA practices by farmers. A structural equation modeling (SEM) and discriminant analysis were applied to model farmers' adoption behavior and decisions. The results showed that climate conditions in the study area, such as increased frequency and the span of dry spells, and erratic rainfall when coupled with socioeconomic and ecological drivers, increase climate impacts on target agroecosystems in the study area. From the various practices surveyed, five practices (agroforestry, crop rotation, grass hedge/stone bunds, in-filed water drainage channel, and intercropping) strike out as most effective in improving agroecosystem resilience, enhancing adaptation benefits, and increasing livelihood and food security. The study also showed that farmers' planning decision to adopt any number of EbA practices is significantly dependent on their perception of control over the use and the benefits drawn from such EbA practices, as well as their vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards. Therefore, those factors were seen to improve farmers' adoption decision of EbA practices. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Biodiversity

2023-11-01T00:00:00Z Kouakou, Kouassi Marcel De Paul http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1302 2026-07-29T11:15:56Z 2023-11-01T00:00:00Z

Future Trends in Coastal Flood Risk under Climate Change Scenarios along the Port-Bouët Bay (Cote D’ivoire) Kouakou, Kouassi Marcel De Paul The increasing risk of coastal flooding in urban areas, driven by climate change and socioeconomic development, underscores the importance of accurate information for adaptation planning and risk mitigation. Yet, in Port-Bouët Bay, Cote d'Ivoire, there is a notable lack of comprehensive studies on coastal flood risk, despite it being a real and pressing concern. Existing research has predominantly focused on coastal erosion and overlooking key aspects like exposure and vulnerability when addressing coastal flood risk. These gaps hinder access to critical information necessary for effective action. Our research seeks to address these knowledge gaps by examining the spatial and temporal evolution of coastal flood risk over the current century using a systematic methodology. Using numerical and GIS-based modelling, empirical computations, statistical analysis, and index calculations, we derived meaningful insights from diverse data sources. Focusing on the neighbourhoods of Vridi, Petit-Bassam, and Sogefiha, our study was conducted at the neighbourhood scale. By incorporating all aspects of risk analysis—hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, we enabled a comprehensive analysis in these specific locations. Our findings reveal that current coastal flood events are linked to relatively high extreme sea level conditions, projected to escalate with rising sea levels. Consequently, flooding will directly affect more areas, populations, and key assets, with the flood-prone area expected to nearly double by 2100, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Sogefiha emerges as the most vulnerable neighbourhood, facing higher susceptibility and potential damage than Vridi and Petit-Bassam. While current coastal flood risk appears relatively low based on risk component indices, future trends vary across neighbourhoods and climate change scenarios. By 2100, Vridi is anticipated to have very low risk, but a shift to high risk is conceivable under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Conversely, Petit-Bassam is expected to sustain low risk under all scenarios, while Sogefiha may face high to very high-risk levels, particularly under SSP5-8.5. The present study provides decision-makers with tools and insights to understand coastal flood risk evolution in the Port-Bouët Bay. It also provides targeted recommendations for adapting to and mitigating coastal flood risks, as well as promoting sustainable coastal management in Côte d'Ivoire and the broader West African region. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Biodiversity

2023-11-01T00:00:00Z Yao, Komlagan Mawuli Apélété http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1301 2026-07-29T11:01:15Z 2024-07-04T00:00:00Z

Migration Dynamics in the Savannah Region, Togo: The Role of Socioeconomic and Environmental Factors Yao, Komlagan Mawuli Apélété Migration has become a phenomenon experienced by most young people in the Savannah Region, the northern region of Togo, bordering Burkina Faso, Benin and Ghana. The region has been subject to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change in recent years, including irregular rainfall, drought and advancing desert. To overcome these problems, a large segment of the population of the region, especially young people, are crossing national borders in search of better living conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the migration dynamics of populations and the impacts of socioeconomic and environmental factors on migration, to evaluate migration as a method of adaptation and to propose some approaches to solutions for a sustainable management of the migration phenomenon. To achieve this objective, a data collection methodology based on quantitative and qualitative methods was adopted; it was found that the region experiences irregular rainfall coupled with pockets of drought, evidence of climate variability and change. The emigration of populations is a response to these environmental changes that the region is experiencing and which are causing an economic crisis for the population. More young, married, poorly educated men are migrating to the countries of the sub region. Migration is not always a measure of adaptation to environmental changes; even if the migrants participate in improving the living conditions of their families in the departure zone, it causes imbalance in the areas of departure and the conditions to which migrants are exposed in the host environments are often not favorable to them. This leads us to set up sustainable management policies for the migration phenomenon. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Côte d’Ivoire, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Biodiversity

2024-07-04T00:00:00Z