http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/961 2026-08-06T04:32:16Z 2026-08-06T04:32:16Z Millogo, Alphonse Maré David http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1316 2026-08-03T09:15:03Z 2025-03-06T00:00:00Z

Vunerability of the Complex Protected-Areas-And-Neighboring Communities under Climatic and Human Footprint Drivers in the Sudanian Climate Zone in Burkina Faso Millogo, Alphonse Maré David Protected forest areas and their neighboring communities in Burkina Faso are facing numerous challenges related to climate change, climate variability, and human impact, without a good understanding of the relationship between forests, climate, and human activities. To overcome this situation, this study's main objective seeks to understand the effect of climate and human footprint drivers on protected areas and their neighboring community resilience in the Sudanian climatic zone of Burkina Faso. Specifically, it seeks (i) to determine rainfall and temperature factors' effect on vegetation cover in the Sudanian climatic zone in Burkina Faso from 2001 to 2022, (ii) to assess the vulnerability of ecosystems within protected areas to human footprint in the Sudanian climatic zone from 1986 to 2022, (iii) to assess protected areas neighboring communities’ vulnerability to climatic and human footprint drivers in the Sudanian climatic zone in Burkina Faso. Using satellite data, including climate data (TAMSAT, ERA5), MODIS-NDVI vegetation data, Landsat data, climate ground data, individual interviews, and focus groups, specific objectives have been fully addressed in consistent and reliable qualitative and quantitative methodology analysis carried out with R, Kobocollectool, QGIS version 3.18, and Excel software’s. The study findings highlighted that the vegetation of the Sudanian climatic zone experienced severe and extreme drought events from 2001 to 2005 and from 2013 to 2016, supported by SPEI6 and NDVI moderate and positive Pearson correlation (r = 0.61). In addition, with a kappa coefficient and overall accuracy of more than 90%, the study revealed that both Dinderesso and Peni classified forest, Clear Forest, and Wooded Savannah/Tree Savannah classes were converted into Shrub Savannah and Agroforestry Parklands from 1986 to 2022 mainly due to human activities representing more than 90% of forest degradation and deforestation drivers. In the Dinderesso classified forest, the annual growth rate of Shrub Savannah and Agroforestry Parklands are respectively 3.86% and 3.09%. In the Peni classified forest, the annual growth rates of Shrub Savannah and Agroforestry Parklands are, respectively, more than 100% and 0.95%. Finally, this study highlighted that Dinderesso and the Peni classified forest neighboring communities were not similarly affected by climate variability effects and human activities on forest provisioning ecosystem services, with their vulnerability ranging from low to moderate. These consistent and meaningful findings are crucial pieces of information that will contribute to improving policymakers, forest managers, and the stakeholders' ability to improve forest management and preserve population livelihoods sustainably. The Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR)

2025-03-06T00:00:00Z Gbaguidi, Gouvidé Jean http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1315 2026-08-03T08:54:00Z 2025-01-29T00:00:00Z

Malaria Risk Modelling and Prediction, V ulnerability of Communities to M alaria in the C ontext of Climate Change in the Northern part of Benin, West Africa Gbaguidi, Gouvidé Jean Africa stands as the most susceptible continent to the ramifications of changes in climate. The repercussions of climate change on human well-being have garnered increased scrutiny in recent times. Malaria, a prevalent vector-borne ailment, emerges as one of the principal diseases profoundly influenced by climatic variations in West Africa. Malaria is the leading cause of mortality in Benin. Malaria Prevention and Reduction Poses Significant Challenges in Benin due to Prevalent Poverty, environmental challenges, and the economic status of the country. This study aims to model the effect of climate change and vegetation health on the transmission of malaria and develop an intelligent outbreak warning system for the prediction of the incidence of malaria in Northern Benin. In addition, the study assesses the vulnerability of the community to malaria. Monthly data on climatic variables and the number of malaria cases were collected over the period 1991 to 2021 and 2009 to 2021 respectively. As well as the weekly Vegetation Health Index data. The study used Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, and PETITT tests to characterise the climate of the study area. Pearson correlation and structural equation model were used to assess climate change’s impact on the malaria transmission. Different regression algorithms were applied to model the impact of malaria transmission due to climate change. We predict the incidence of malaria in northern Benin over 2021-2050 period using Cordex Africa data. An online malaria early warning web application was developed using the Streamlit framework. The impact of vegetation on the infection of malaria was determined, and a malaria forecast model was developed using vegetation health indices. The vulnerability of the community is assessed using socio-economic and environmental data. PCA was used to determine the weight of each indicator. The findings revealed that temperature and relative humidity are the major climatic factors influencing malaria transmission in northern Benin. An advanced model for malaria epidemics predicts 82% malaria incidence, with an increase in 2021–2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and a decrease under RCP8.5 over 2021-2030. The web-based application developed predicts accurately the malaria outbreak risk. Moisture (TCI) predicts 75% of the monthly malaria cases during intense mosquito activities, while 78% of the monthly occurrence of malaria is predicted by the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and soil temperature index (TCI). Materi, Cobli, Boukoumbe, and Perere districts exhibit the highest vulnerability to malaria in northern Benin. The findings of this research provide tools for stakeholders and policymakers at different levels. They can use these tools to take target actions to lessen the transmission of malaria in Benin and mitigate the impact of climate change on the community’s health by developing adaptation strategies. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, the Université de Lomé, Togo in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

2025-01-29T00:00:00Z Faye, Adama http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1314 2026-08-03T08:47:37Z 2025-05-06T00:00:00Z

Resilience to Food Insecurity of Rural Households in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin in a Context of Climate Change Faye, Adama This study analyzed the resilience to food insecurity of rural households in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin in response to climate-related risks. Cross-sectional data from the National Food Security, Nutrition, and Resilience Survey conducted by the Executive Secretariat of the National Council for Food Security of Senegal, covering 3,100 households from 19 departments of the Groundnut Basin, were obtained in addition to relevant climate variables derived from CHIRPS and ERA5 datasets from 1991-2020. The study employs three key methodologies: the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) approach to assess the impact of crop diversification on food security and welfare, the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA-II) to measure household resilience, and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) combined with the Dose-Response Function to estimate the relationship between resilience and food security outcomes. The results indicate that total seasonal precipitation and maximum temperatures positively influence the yields of groundnuts, millet, and maize, with other weather factors exerting varied effects across the Groundnut Basin. Crop diversification significantly improves household welfare and mitigates climate-related risks. Access to essential services, assets, and adaptive capacity are key resilience determinants. Also, higher Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) positively influences food and nutrition security indicators (Food Consumption Score (FCS) and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS)). Female-headed households demonstrate greater resilience than male-headed households. The analysis further reveals that these households benefit more from resilience-building efforts but face higher vulnerability when such measures are absent. The findings recommend enhancing climate adaptation strategies, promoting crop diversification, and strengthening female-headed households' access to resources to improve resilience and food security outcomes. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, the Université de Lomé, Togo in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

2025-05-06T00:00:00Z Passike Pokona, Essoninam http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1313 2026-08-03T08:42:13Z 2025-06-20T00:00:00Z

Prediction of climate-sensitive respiratory diseases in West Africa using climate information: case of asthma in northern (Savanes region) and southern part (Grand-Lomé region) of Togo Passike Pokona, Essoninam This study investigates the relationship between climate and asthma to improve monitoring and healthcare management. The study focuses on three areas: examining the link between climatic and environmental variables and asthma based on statistical correlation, assessing the perceptions of healthcare practitioners and asthma patients through questionnaire and interview, and predicting asthma occurrences using climatic data. The research is based on five years of data (2018-2022) from two regions in Togo: The Savanes region (northern Sahelian zone) and the Grand-Lomé region (southern coastal zone). Key findings included the identification of significant correlations between climate factors and asthma. In the Savanes region, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), minimum temperatures (TMIN), and wind speed were strongly linked to asthma. In Grand-Lomé, maximum humidity (UMAX) and insolation were key factors. Asthma prevalence was higher in the coastal region (274.8 per 100,000) compared to the Savanes (64.88 per 100,000), with exacerbations occurring in the colder, dry months from december to february. Patient surveys revealed that despite 60% regularly seeking medical care, financial and cultural barriers limited access for some. Among healthcare professionals, 39.2% had training in climate change, but many were unaware of national asthma management guidelines that integrate climate factors. An impact chain analysis demonstrated how climate hazards like temperature variations and pollution exacerbate asthma risk, particularly for vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly. Predictive models, including Random Forest and Polynomial Regression, were developed to forecast asthma cases, with Random Forest selected as the most effective model for both regions due to its ability to capture seasonal variations. The study recommends better integration of climate considerations into health strategies, including early warning systems and public awareness campaigns A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, the Université de Lomé, Togo in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Degree in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

2025-06-20T00:00:00Z