http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/950 2026-04-04T10:23:42Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/225 Impact of Climate Change on Solar Monocrystalline Photovoltaic System Efficiency in the Near Future: Case of Ouagadougou Sawadogo, Safiata The main source of electricity in West Africa comes from Fossil fuels. The fossil fuels have negative impacts on the climate system. However, this will not prevent countries to produce electricity for the welfare of their population. Renewable energy such as solar energy is the way to move forward for climate change mitigation. Nevertheless, climate change has an impact on the atmospheric variables that solar photovoltaic depend for electricity generation. In this study, we investigate the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic potential over West Africa and Ouagadougou under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the framework of the Paris agreement. We used two Regional Climate Models (CLMcom and RCA4) from COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) AFRICA initiative to analyze the impact of climate change on PV potential. These Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are driven by three Global Climate Models (CNRM, HadGEM and MPI). The PV potential was computed using surface wind speed, the air temperature and the downwelling shortwave solar radiation from the models and observation. The models were evaluated against the ERA-interim and Climate Research Unit. As result, the Regional Climate Model members and their ensemble mean are able to replicate the spatial distribution of air temperature and the surface wind speed with some biases over West Africa. In contrast, the CORDEX simulations are able to reproduce the spatial distribution of downwelling shortwave solar radiation. While, the mean surface wind speed falls in the inter quantile range of the Regional Climate Model members in the daily variation of surface wind speed over Ouagadougou, the mean air temperature and downwelling shortwave solar radiation are outside of the inter quantile range. Besides, for both global warming levels and both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) all the models agree in the warming over West Africa but more effective in Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and in the 2 °C global warming level. Ouagadougou may experience an increase in air temperature up to 2 °C in the daily variation under both Representative Concentration Pathways and global warming levels. Different from that, there is no agreement of the models about the change in surface wind speed, downwelling shortwave solar radiation and PV potential over West Africa for both Representative Concentration Pathways and global warming levels. Finally, the inter quantile range of the Regional Climate Models project a change in the daily variation of those variables over vii Ouagadougou. The results of this study will help decision-makers to plan for long term solar energy for electricity generation over West Africa and Ouagadougou. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy 2018-03-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/224 System Dynamics Modelling for Energy Planning and Carbon-Dioxide Emissions: A Case of the Nigerian Power Sector Shari, Babajide Epe Energy is essential to supporting our daily activities; it is a main driver of economic development and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Due to associated complexities and uncertainties, decision makers and energy planners are facing increased pressure to effectively address energy related challenges, including greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, in the sector. The study seeks to bridge the electricity supply-demand gap by developing a system dynamics (SD) model for the Nigerian power sector (NPS) in its long term performance, 2010 to 2050. Using the developed SD model, the following were evaluated: i) the contribution of the Mambilla hydropower (MMPH) upon its completion at the horizon of 2024; ii) the contributions of renewable and non-renewable energy capacities under-construction; and iii) the carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents emissions of the contributions. These were done under six policy scenarios. The factors assessed were the: 1) Transmission losses (Tx); 2) Time to Adjust Capacity (TAC); 3) Population Growth Rate (PGR); and 4) Capacities under construction. Thus, results showed that the completion of existing project and the MMPH would make the NPS 71% energy secured at the end of simulation period (2050). This was achieved as a result of Tx reduced by 0.5%, earlier TAC (15years), and a PGR of 2%. Results also revealed a paradigm shift in CO2 reduction in the planning process considered by the study in contrast to the existing generations. It was advocated from the study that for the NPS to be totally out of energy poverty, it must decentralize the energy generation means and review its rural electrification policy. Emphasis should be put on harnessing grass root energy resources and more renewable energy in its energy mix. Also, capability of SD is affirmed by properly capturing feedbacks, delays, and other complexities in the NPS. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy 2018-03-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/223 Hybrid Off-grid Renewable Power System for Sustainable Rural Electrification in Benin Odou, Oluwarotimi De lano Thierry Rural areas in Benin, as in many sub-Saharan Africa countries are marginalised, in term of electricity assess due to their remoteness from the grid and challenging to access despite most of the country population lives in those places. Lack of access to electricity is one of the leading reason that still restraint economic development and poverty reduction of rural areas. The scalability and universality of Renewable Energy (RE) offered a unique opportunity to power these communities through decentralised energy system, but RE suffered from their intermittent nature. This study aims to analyse the techno-economic feasibility of off-grid Hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) for sustainable electrification in Fouay village, Alibori Division in Benin as well as analysing the market through two economic value, the Willingness To Pay (WTP) and Ability To Pay (ATP). The load demand is analysed through an onsite survey, solar radiation, wind speed is obtained from the meteorological centre and hydro resource estimated were uploaded in HOMER while setting the projects economics and constraints for optimisation and sensitivity analysis. The survey also included qualitative and quantitative questions related to household’s financial status and energy situation, used to compute the ATP and WTP of the community for electricity. The techno-economic analysis showed that Hybrid PV/DG/battery is the least cost optimal system with a Net Present Cost of $555492 and COE of 0.207$/kWh. It provides a reliable power supply with 0% unmet load and reduces battery costs by 30% compared to PV/battery system. In environmental view, it achieves 97% CO2 emissions reduction compared to standalone Diesel Generator with a high renewable fraction of 96.7%. PV/DG/Battery is found to be economically viable than grid extension with a breakeven even grid extension distance of -1.86km and COE lower than the national grid applied of 0.22$/kWh. The market analysis revealed in overall a great Willingness to Pay of households for the electricity and ability to pay for a cost of electricity of 0.45$/kWh higher than the COE of the design system. This study indicated off-grid HRES as, clean, reliable, and affordable technology to power in a sustainable manner the village of Fouay and need to be replicated in other areas of the country for generalisation. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy 2018-03-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/222 System Dynamic Model of a Distributed Generation for Energy Security in Niamey Pouye, Modou Pouye Economic development is based on a reliable and cost effective energy supply. To sustain their economic growth, emerging countries need a dependable Distributed Generation (DG). DG is an efficient way to reach energy security by minimizing power losses in long and aging transmission lines. Due to the inherent Complexity of electricity systems, this study proposes to use System Dynamics (SD) modeling approach to investigate the links between electricity supply and demand, population growth, and real climatic parameters in Niamey, Niger. Some of the variables utilized in this study were the local solar radiation and wind speed. Results proved that: (1) the current population would reach 4,500,000 people in the horizon of 2050 under the actual birth and death rates; (2) the highest summer electricity demand in the year 2012 was 97.3 MW; (3) electricity supply can be far higher than demand by implementing a 72.3 MW Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in conjunction with 15 MW Energy Storage System (ESS); and (4) through sensitive analysis, Niamey and neighboring vicinity would reach energy independence from now to 2050, and even beyond. Finally, this study proposes some policy guidelines and recommendations. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Université Abdou Moumini, Niger in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Energy 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z