Climate Change and Adapted Land Use - Batch 2

Analysing Climate Change Projection on Water Availability for Rainfed Agriculture in Awun Basin, Kwara State, Nigeria

2015-09-01T00:00:00Z

Analysing Climate Change Projection on Water Availability for Rainfed Agriculture in Awun Basin, Kwara State, Nigeria Gbangou, Talardia This study investigates the impact of climate change projections on water availability for rainfed agriculture in Awun basin, Kwara State, Nigeria using high resolution (25 km spatial resolution) RegCM4 simulations. The study was guided by four (4) specific objectives which are (i) assessment of crop types, cropping patterns and farmers’ perception of water availability, (ii) downscaling/bias correction of climate scenarios, (iii) evaluation of rainfall characteristics (onset, seasonality index, and hydrologic ratio), and (iv) assessment of the crops water requirements. RegCM4 runs for the control period and for two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) driven by two GCMs (MPI and GFDL) were collected at WASCAL competence centre, Burkina Faso. The simulations provided are rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature and relative humidity for the control period (1985-2004) and the scenario period (2080-2099). The observations (1985-2014) for the same parameters from the synoptic station of Ilorin were collected at NIMET, Abuja. A focus was made on major food crops (maize, sorghum, cassava, and yam) in the area. Onset of growing season was determined using Benoit method tested with HS and BMN ET models. BMN model was also used to compute ET0. The study showed that mean rainfall depth for the realistic scenario RCP4.5 will decrease by 9.6% and 13.1 % for MPI and GFDL driven runs while under the pessimistic scenario RCP8.5 the expected decreases in the mean rainfall depth are 15.2 % and 17.7 % for MPI and GFDL driven runs respectively. Minimum and maximum temperatures will increase from 1.5 0C to 2 0C for the realistic scenarios RCP4.5 and from 3.10C to 4.00C for the more pessimistic scenario RCP8.5 respectively. However the mean relative humidity will decrease by 10% by 2100s. The start of the growing season, independently of the ET model used, is projected to be late in the future. In fact the onset date is 5th May for baseline (1995-2014) while under RCP4.5 the dates are 23rd May and 2nd June for MPI and GFDL driven runs respectively and under the RCP8.5 the dates are 14th June and 9th June for MPI and GFDL respectively. A seasonality index (SI) included between 0.80 and 0.99, and a hydrologic ratio (HR) < 0.74 for all scenarios were found, meaning respectively that (i) the rainy season will get shorter and (ii) the area will get drier in the future. Results showed that the crop water need for the growing season of maize and sorghum will be satisfied while that of cassava will not. It showed that cassava could not be planted conveniently within its growing season without irrigation in Awun Basin. The present study might be helpful in explaining the plausible effects of present and future climate on crop water needs and better planning of agricultural water resources in Awun Basin. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Assessment of Vulnerability of Scattered Agroforestry Tree Species to Climate Change in Niger State, Nigeria

2015-09-01T00:00:00Z

Assessment of Vulnerability of Scattered Agroforestry Tree Species to Climate Change in Niger State, Nigeria Allakonon, Marsanne Gloriose Bignon Climate change-induced impacts on trees has gained much more attention during the past years. In the tropics, more information on trees sensitivity to climate change is still needed. This study has assessed the vulnerability of Underutilized Agroforestry Trees (UAT) to climate change in Niger State, Nigeria. An Integrated Assessment Approach, encompassing exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and relating nineteen (19) indicators, has been used as framework for the assessment. To overcome the non-availability of specific tree-related data, the vulnerability of Underutilized Agroforestry Trees (UAT) has been assessed using the vulnerability of rural communities relying on them as a proxy. Therefore individual questionnaires have been administered to 340 farmers, heads of households, across seven (7) Local Government Areas (LGAs), namely, Bosso, Rafi, Lavun, Lapai, Mashegu, Kontagora and Borgu LGAs, in Niger State. This enabled the identification of the most used species, and the assessment of their ethno-botanic, edible cultural and economic importance. The identified species were also ranked according to their sensitivity level to climate change. The data analysis, performed in R software and Microsoft Excel, revealed Adansonia digitata, Vitellaria paradoxa, Parkia biglobosa, Vitex doniana and Tamarindus indica as the five species mostly used by Nupe, Hausa, Gwari, Abewa, Kambari, Bussa and Kamuku ethnic groups. All the identified species are used as food by man. However, they are also implicated in different proportion in other uses such as animal feeding, medicine, firewood, art and craft, worshiping, building, cosmetics, and trade. Although the climatic conditions pertaining to Niger State totally lie within the tolerance range of each species, some species have been perceived to be more sensitive than others. In this sense, rural communities pointed out V. doniana as being highly sensitive to climate change compared to other species. A strong association between local knowledge of the rural communities and their perception of the vulnerability of the mentioned species to climate change, can therefore be established. Furthermore, the assessment of vulnerability highlights a disparity in natural and social assets among the Local Government Areas. Farmers in Lavun and Lapai LGAs are deemed to be more vulnerable whilst those in Mashegu LGA are the least vulnerable to climate change. The results consequently imply that intervention should be drawn towards rural communities in Lavun and Lapai LGA to enhance their resilience to climate change. To be more effective, intervention measures should take into account, among others, the cultural importance of the species with regard to their traditional uses. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science

Household Vulnerability and Adaptation to Water Stress Induced by Climate Variability on Downstream Kaduna River Basin

2015-09-01T00:00:00Z

Household Vulnerability and Adaptation to Water Stress Induced by Climate Variability on Downstream Kaduna River Basin Okafor, Gloria Chinwendu Water stress is one of the risks climatic variations poses to livelihoods and challenge that is confronting all continent of the World. This study aimed at investigating household vulnerability and adaptation to water stress induced by climate variability on Downstream Kaduna river basin. The study sites; Shiroro, Gbako and Lavun LGA were selected purposively while random sampling was adopted to select 200 households. Historical records of hydro-climatic data were collected from NIMET and Shiroro Hydro-electric Power Station. The research employed qualitative data collected through stakeholders’ participatory survey to explore vulnerability through its three determinants: exposure to a stressor (water stress and climate variability), sensitivity to stress, and adaptive capacity of households. Interviews at the household levels, focus group meetings and site visits were conducted to assess the prevailing conditions in six communities and to develop a profile of water stress and how this was altered by climatic variations. Statistical tests were used to assess the significance of trends and questionnaire data were analysed using SPSS IBM 20 and MS Excel 2013. The results indicate that for the period 1975 to 2014 at 95% significance level, rainfall in the Kaduna river basin has no distinctive significant trend at annual and seasonal scale, but the temperature in the basin show obvious upward trends particularly during the rainy season. An overall increasing trend is prevalent in runoff series into the Shiroro reservoir which are the result of the combined effects of rainfall and temperature changes in the basin. In addition, the survey in six communities suggests that households are vulnerable to climate variability induced water stress with low current coping capacity. The study revealed that households have both individually and collectively employed strategies to minimize water-related vulnerabilities such as soil and water conservation practices, diversification and migration to nearest towns. Household adaptation techniques to water stress induced by climate variability in the study area are temporal indigenous coping strategies usually adopted during periods of stress to offset growing vulnerability. The study demonstrated how an understanding of the local household vulnerabilities will enable the recognition of early indicators of water and food insecurity in addition to the occurrence of extreme events. In general, vulnerability of households has decreased across villages due to differences in sensitivity to stress, livelihood options and infrastructure. Therefore, there is the need to have robust coping and adaptation measures to deal with the variations in the climate system. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science

Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Vegetation Dynamics of Doma Forest Reserve in Nasarawa State, Nigeria

2015-09-01T00:00:00Z

Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Vegetation Dynamics of Doma Forest Reserve in Nasarawa State, Nigeria Moussa, Soulé Nigeria’ forests reserve are reducing due to human activities. Forest reserves in Nigeria are depleted as a result of cropland expansion, pastureland and logging activities. A lot of studies have showed that deforestation is serious environmental problem in Nigeria with forest loss occurring at a highest world ‘rate of 3.3% per year. The aim of this study is investigate the impact of land use and climate change on Doma forest reserve dynamics by combining Remote Sensing, GIS techniques and field data measurement. Land satellite images for 1984, 1999 and 2015 were downloaded from GlOVIS. The field data were obtained from Doma forest inventory and questionnaire was used. The three years of satellites images were processed using ArcGIS 10, ENVI4.7 and IDRISI 17, for computerizing the maps of Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI).Excel was used for statistical calculations. NDVI map comparison, NDVI differencing and descriptive statistic were used for the data analysis for Doma forest change detection. Floristic analysis was used to describe the woody flora of Doma forest reserve. Descriptive statistic was used to find out climate change perception of Doma forest reserve communities and their perception about the impact of climate change and land use affecting Doma forest dynamics. Doma forest reserve NDVI analysis revealed that high positive NDVI values of + 0.57 was recorded in 1999 while the lowest of -0.035 occurred in 1984 and followed by + 0.05 of 2015.But there was much reduction in Doma forest reserve greenness in 2015. As for Doma forest reserve woody flora description, the analysis showed that 36 woody species were recorded belonging to 16 botanical families and 36 genera within 10 plots but Fabaceae had the highest number of woody species (seven species) distributed in seven genera. All the recorded genera were monospecific. Questionnaire data analysis revealed that that 69 among 100 of the respondents were aware of climate change but only 31 respondents were not aware of climate change. Further, the analysis showed that 30% of the people perceived that climate change has impact on Doma forest reserve dynamics. Their feeling was that the impacts of climate change on Doma forest reserve dynamics were dryness of the forest and the long presence of Fulani men within the reserve due to the long delayed onset of rainfall. Nevertheless, 41% of Doma forest communities perceived that farming activities impacted more Doma forest dynamics followed by illegal logging and grazing. The study concluded there was substantial decrease in Doma forest reserve greenness form 1999 to 2015.Further, the study concluded that unsuitable land use practices such as the use of fire, cutting down the trees for land clearance, the collection for timber, the huts of Fulani men within the reserve were the land use of the depletion of Doma forest reserve. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria. in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science