http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/967 2026-06-02T22:38:27Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1195 Agricultural Land Use Change in the Lowlands of Southern Mali under Climate Variability Traore, Alou research investigated agricultural land use change in the lowlands of Southern Mali under climate variability. Four supervised classification techniques, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Tree Boosting (GTB) in Google Earth Engine (GEE), were used for the image classification. An integrated Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural-Network (CA-ANN) within the MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS was used for future Land Use and Land Cover prediction. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope, Pettit-test and change-point detection analyse were applied for climate variability assessment. Monthly rainfall and mean temperature extending over a period of 61 years (1960–2020) recorded at Sikasso District were analysed. Annual rainfall varied between 800 mm to 1600 mm and annual mean temperature ranged between 25 oC to 28 oC. Seasonal rainfall ranged between 37-387 mm, March-April-May (MAM), 400-1030 mm, June-July-August (JJA), 77-577 mm September-October-November (SON) and 0-45 mm for December-January-February (DJF). Mean seasonal temperature ranged from 29 oC to 32 oC (MAM), 26.5 oC to 28.5 (JJA) oC and 26 oC to 28 oC (SON). Annual and seasonal rainfall trends increased slightly. Temperature showed a significant increase in both annual and seasonal trends. Out of 395 respondents, 79 % were of the view that annual rainfall decreased while 83 % reported mean temperature increased. Again, respondents perceived late onset rainfall (97 %), early cessation of rainfall (96 %), increased in drought (83 %) and flooding (96 %). Also, 43 % of respondents adopted new varieties to cope with climate variability. The findings showed that physical and socioeconomic driving forces had impact on terrain patterns. Over the past three decades, the study revealed that apart from cropland area which increased from 43.81 % to 52.75 %, the size of the other land uses decreased, forest cover (19.93 % - 13.93 %) shrubs (16 % - 14 %), and streams (6 % - 4 %). However, the forecast for the 2020 to 2030 predicted an increasing trend in forest cover and decreasing trend in agricultural land in the study area due to the ongoing afforestation projects. The study demonstrates the need to reinforce regional land management policies and programmes. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Land Use 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1088 Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Agro- Ecosystem Services Provisioning in Riverine Areas of Pendjari Reserve in Benin, West Africa Makponse, Dossa Armand Examining the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on biodiversity loss and human wellbeing in the Pendjari Reserve, a biodiversity hotspot in West Africa that has seen human disturbances for years, is the primary goal of this study. The study employed Landsat images and utilized the Random Forest classification software to analyze the dynamics of LULC for 1998, 2007, 2013, and 2020. The expected LULC for 2035 was projected using Terset 18.21. To learn more about household socio- economics characteristics and the advantages of trees in the townships from Tanguieta and Materi, information from 361 farmers was gathered. The influence of farm size, landholding, and district on tree diversity, tree species richness, and tree abundance, were examined as their combined impacts. The study unveiled notable alterations in LULC patterns, such as a reduced wooded savannah and a rise in shrub, cropland, and fallow land. Settlement areas experienced an increase in the studied period. The predicted results indicated an imminent slight decrease in wooded savannah, increase in shrub savannah, cropland, and fallow land, as well as a reduction of settlement areas in the future. Furthermore, farmers' preferences for tree and crop associations were assessed, with Parkia biglobosa identified as the tree species with the largest mean diameter at breast height (dbh) and height. At the same time, Vitellaria paradoxa had the highest height in Materi and Tanguieta. Tree benefits played a crucial role in selecting trees for agroforestry systems, with provisioning services followed by supporting services being the most common ecosystem benefits derived by local communities. Tree-crop associations varied among the farmers. The study examined the effects of tree conservation on agricultural output in agroforestry systems within the same study region as well as the impact of climate trends on critical crop yields. Findings revealed a substantial positive (warming) trend in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. There was a general positive warming trend observed between 1981 to 2020. Results showed that the lowest temperature positively and considerably impacted maize yields, while rainfall and relative humidity adversely affected respectively negatively and positively maize yields. The minimum temperature and relative humidity had a positive and substantial impact on sorghum. The maximum temperature and relative humidity negatively impacted cotton yield, but rainfall had affected positively cotton yields. Maximum and minimum temperature positively and significantly impacted cowpea yields. The Exponential regression model indicated that soil physicochemical characteristics and distance between tree and crop were the primary variables influencing crop yields in agroforestry systems. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that the maximum carbon stored by wooded savannah was projected to be 494,198.1 Mg C ha-1 in 2050, which decreased to 387,059.4 Mg C ha-1 in 2020 and 387,047.2 Mg C ha-1 in 2035. The lowest value of carbon is projected to be sequestered from 2020 to 2035, over a period of fifteen years. The highest gain and loss of projected carbon to sequestered for the period 2020 - 2050 is 108,947 Mg C ha-1 and -57, 996 Mg C ha-1 and the period 2035 -2050 is 108878 Mg C ha-1 and -57984.6 Mg C ha-1, respectively. Conversely, the lowest gain and loss were anticipated from 2020 to 2035, with value of 845.56 Mg ha-1 and -47.52 Mg C ha-1, respectively. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Land Use 2023-08-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1087 Adoption and Effects of Climate Change Adaptation, and Land Use Decision of Smallholders Farmers in the Saline Area of Sine-Saloum, Fimela Senegal Thiam, Habibatou Ibrahima Soil salinity expansion is one of the most severe land degradation issues confronting farmers in Senegal, particularly in coastal areas such as Fimela. With sea level rise, temperature rise, and rainfall decrease, soil salinity is increasing significantly. It has a negative impact on crop yields and farmers' livelihoods. Farmers developed land use adaptation strategies to deal with soil salinity. Nonetheless, despite adaptations, some farmers continue to complain about the negative impact of soil salinity on their outcomes. Then, this study investigates farmers' adaptation, the different factors that influence it, its implications for smallholder farmers' livelihoods, and farmers' perception of soil salinity and its impact. Data from face-to-face interviews of 288 households using the Krejci and Morgan’s formula and GPS coordinates of households and each of their farms was collected. An agent-based model was used to understand land use adaptation to soil salinity expansion by considering farmers' perceptions of soil salinity expansion under climate change for simulation. A sub-model of household decisions, crop yield, and perception of soil salinity was developed and incorporated into the model. Three scenarios were considered to simulate the interaction between household agents and landscape agents over 25 years. Farmers' adoption is influenced by their assets and sociopsychological factors like threat assessment, coping assessment, and subjective norms. Farmers in Fimela do not have maladaptation thinking that may break their willingness to adopt strategies to cope with soil salinity. The ESR model shows that farmers' adoption of strategies to cope with soil salinity has a positive impact on groundnut yields and a negative influence on food security but has no significant effect on their millet yields. These findings have been validated by the simulation results, which show that the yield difference between farmers who perceive soil salinity expansion and those who do not is significant for groundnut but not millet over 25 years. As a result, it is critical to base policies in combating soil salinity effects on providing better methods of soil salinity adaptation strategies through scientific research. Policies should support a few pilot farmers in these precise and effective strategies to trigger other farmers to follow through the village and social influence by the farmer-to-farmer approach to enable farmers access and appropriation of these new methods. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Land Use 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/1086 Crops-Livestock Integration as a Resilience Strategy to Climate Change in Burkina Faso Sanou, Charles Lamoussa This study titled addressed a topical issue of climate change and its impacts on farmers' livelihoods and the role that an integrated crop-livestock system can play in building resilient farmers and agricultural systems. The research first of all analysed historical climate (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature) trends across three climatic zones Sudan (Dano), Sudan-Sahel (Niou) and Sahel (Dori)) at annual, seasonal and decadal scales. Climates indices computation was done using the package ClimPACT2 GUI in R software. Annual and seasonal climate were compared using the independent t-test. Decadal climate indices were subjected to a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The research also analysed the susceptibility or sensibility of crop production and livestock health to climate change. Thirdly, the research developed and/or updated measurement tool known as Crop-Livestock Integration (CLI) indicators for a holistic characterisation of integrated croplivestock system. These indicators were developed based on the information from 589 farmers’ households and secondary data. Above ground, data were collected from 4,733 trees over a total land area of 243.2 ha (80.1 ha, 78.8 ha and 84.3 ha in Sudan, Sudan-Sahel and Sahel zones, respectively). Due to the Sahel zone's insecurity, soil data could be collected only within Sudan and Sudan-Sahel zones. In total, 120 composite soil samples were collected for this purpose and 240 other samples for soil bulk density determination. Results revealed changes in climate conditions, more pronounced in temperature variations than in rainfall. In the Sudan-Sahel and Sahel zones, a re-wetting trends was observed over the last decade supporting the re-greening hypothesis of the Sahel. Despite some positive effects of the climate indices, crop failure was the major impact of climate pejoration across zones. Similarly, livestock health was majorly negatively affected by climate deterioration though the resurgence of diseases due to climate change. Climate indices could explain 23.0 - 50.2 % of the variations in crop yield and an increased cases of livestock diseases occurrence by 1-9.4 units due to the deterioration in climate conditions across climatic zones. Changes in climatic conditions may also induce microbial proliferation and host susceptibility to result in the emergence, redistribution, and changes in the incidence and intensity of pest infestations. The study concluded that crop-livestock integration is underperforming in Burkina Faso and can be improved. Majority farmers (91.6 %) in the Sudan-Sahel zone are practising full crop-livestock integration, unlike the Sahel (62.3%) and Sudan (48.2%) zones. However, only 14.8%, 10.5% and 5.1 % showed the effectiveness of integration in the Sudan-Sahel, Sahel and Sudan zones, respectively. CLI was comparatively more effective in Sudan-Sahel (65.9±32.0 %) than Sahel (44.9±29.5 %) and Sudan zones (35.6±35.0 %). Integration indicators were significantly associated with farm emissions, productivity, biodiversity and soils nutrients. CLI is also a tree-based system with high sequestration potential that could significantly counterbalance the whole system emissions. However, the coverage of fodder needs is negatively associated with soils nutrients content indicating field nutrient mining if an appropriate scheme of nutrient return to the soils as manure is not set. An adequate combination of CLI components offers an opportunity to build resilient farming systems in Burkina Faso to adapt to the changing climate. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Land Use 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z