http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/16 Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:06:35 GMT 2026-04-23T15:06:35Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/310 Climate Change and Food Security in Central Mali: A Dynamic and Stochastic Bioeconomic Farm Model Diarra, Aichatou African farmers need to better adapt to climate variability. Many of them underwent a terrible famine in the seventies and still face food insecurity. In this study we aim to investigate the situation of Malian farmers of the Cinzana commune where there has been little socio-economic improvement since Independence. The commune is typical of the regions with little irrigation and with no participation in the cotton sector. In this study we simulate different policy instruments that are supposed to improve resilience, such as, irrigation, credit, climate forecast and animal fattening. We compare the impact in terms of cash income, food security, employment and sustainability. The findings of this study show that the impact of climate variability cannot be separated from soil fertility management (which is reduced by population pressure). Adaptations strategies to climate variability such as climate prediction are useful but cannot solve the problem of soil fertility decline. The simulations show that farmers of the area are still food insecure. Farmers still need to buy food after a dry scenario. If droughts occur several years in a row they are likely to be unable to buy food and will need food aid. The strategies to improve agricultural productions and food security have to incorporate both soil fertility management and rainfall variability management. Farmers need to integrate crop and livestock activities so as to get enough animal manure to maintain soil fertility. However, the government must find a way to revive an agricultural credit program or to subsidize the price of fertilizers because of current low purchasing power of households. In this study, we show that policy instruments can have a strong impact and that some combination of instruments has a better impact than others. In this study, we show that policy instruments can have a strong impact and that some combinations of instruments have better impact, compared to several policy instruments in isolation than others. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Economics Sun, 01 May 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/310 2016-05-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/151 Climate Variability, Food Crops Supply and Family Farm Employment in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone of Nigeria Yusuf, Isah Maikudi This thesis is based on the premise that the impact of climate variability on crop production decisions can be either positive or negative depending on the crop, cropping system and the nature of the variation in weather pattern. These features of a crop production system approximate the actual/implied possibility famers’ adaptive responses through changing crop input and output mixes. The main objective is to estimate the impact of climate variability on the supply of three most extensively grown food crops (millet, sorghum and cowpea) in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Nigeria and to deduce the implications of the estimated production relationship for family farm labour utilization. Crop production is characterized by a stochastic multi-output technology based on duality theory. The resulting system of multi-crops supply, variable inputs demand, variances and covariance equations were represented by a normalized quadratic (dual) indirect utility function, assuming linear mean-variance risk preferences or constant absolute risk aversion (CARA). The price of the least important crop (cowpea) is used as a numerie to normalize the other equations and the supply equation for cowpea was dropped. Relevant time series data from 1994 to 2009 on crop outputs, inputs, prices and monthly rainfall were collected from varied sources and pooled across sub-regional states level to yield a pooled time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) panel data structure. The variances and covariance equations were estimated with a non-linear least squares estimation technique and their predicted values were used as instruments in the expected crop supply equations. Thereafter, the two regional expected crop supply and variable input demand equations were estimated using linear seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation technique. Estimation is done at two spatial resolutions (that is, sudano-sahelian and sudano-savannah zones) using both satellite (MERRA) and ground level (NIMET) monthly seasonal rainfall data. Among other important production relationships, results indicate that climate variability has largely impacted negatively on expected crops supply of millet and sorghum with largely negative implications for the utilization of family farm labour in the study region. It is recommended that investments in the infrastructure and technology that provides timely and quality weather forecast information to farmers be increased. There is also a need for the introduction of crop specific weather index-based insurance as a mechanism for managing climate related risk in a multiple cropping system. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Economics Fri, 01 Apr 2016 00:00:00 GMT http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/151 2016-04-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/145 Collective Action and Farmers’ Private Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Savanna Region In Togo Pilo, Mikemina This study has two main objectives. The first main objective is to analyse the role of collective action and other factors on farmers’ adaptive behaviour. In addition to determining the impact of collective action on the propensity of farm households to adopt a specific adaptation measure, this study goes further to assess the impact of adaptation on farm income. The empirical estimations are based on the data coming from a household survey that was implemented within the Savanna region of Togo in the 2012-2013 agricultural year on 450 agricultural households. To achieve the first objective, the study firstly uses principal component analysis to recover the underlying latent variables of collective action at the household level given that collective action is not directly observed. Two factors, namely cooperative capacity and effective cooperation, are hypothesized to capture collective action and are further used in a two-step multivariate probit to examine whether collective action is systematically linked to adaptation to climate change. These two factors reflect different modes of group participation. The distinction between different modes of group participation is particularly relevant because membership per se may not determine impacts when members participate in group activities to varying degrees. In addition, the study builds a recursive dynamic mathematical programming model (bio-economic model) to achieve the second main objective. Prior to the bio-economic model, farm households in the study site were grouped into homogenous groups using a clustering technique. The results of the first method suggest, in general, that collective action at the individual farm household level in the form of cooperative capacity and effective cooperation does affect farmers’ private adaptation to climate change. One of the channels through which the effect of collective action on adaptation operates includes farmers’ climate change perception. Another important result from this first method is that climate change could enhance collective action initiatives. The results of the bio-economic model highlight the possibility of reducing climate change’s impact by the use of adaptation. Indeed, increases in the intensity of all the strategies used in the study site, except reduction in the use of fertilizer, have positive effects on farm income from crops and livestock. Moreover, irrigation can do more than simply compensate for climate change’s adverse impacts. It has a positive effect on farm households’ income and appears to be more efficient than the current situation, indicating that adoption of irrigation has a win-win outcome. It helps in coping with the adverse effects and risks of climate change while increasing agricultural productivity. By contrast, reduction in the use of fertilizer appears to increase farm households’ vulnerability. The magnitude of these results varies depending on farm households’ wealth. Policies that facilitate collective action could therefore help climate change adaptation such as water and soil conservation and irrigation practices by farm households, also by taking better advantage of collective action responses. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Economics Sun, 01 Mar 2015 00:00:00 GMT http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/145 2015-03-01T00:00:00Z http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/144 Farmers and communities vulnerability and resilience to climate shocks and adaptation policy responses in the Niger basin of Benin Lokonon, Boris Odilon Kounagbè This study aims to answer the question: How are households and communities in the Niger basin of Benin vulnerable and resilient to climate shocks and what will their adaptation policy responses be? The analysis of the impacts of climate shocks is done through a recursive, dynamic mathematical programming model that represents the economic decisions of the eight types of farmers found in the basin. Simulations are carried out, based on the bio-economic model, on some adaptation policies which are: (i) improvements to irrigation, (ii) better access to credit, (iii) research and development, and (iv) better access to the labor market. The vulnerability and resilience of farmers and communities to climate shocks are assessed based on an integrated approach using indicators, which include a series of different socio-economic and bio-physical attributes corresponding to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definition of vulnerability. Then, the approach is validated through a Classification and Regression Trees (CART) model. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed and econometric analyses are carried out to forecast the indices. Findings reveal that farm income declines due to climate shocks from -17.43 to -69.48% compared to the baseline scenario (farm income of 2012-2013). Farmers of agro-ecological zone II will be the most affected by climate shocks, followed by agro-ecological zones III, I and IV. Furthermore, the impacts of extreme events (floods and droughts) are simulated and reveal that they will negatively affect farming. Findings also show a decline in land and labor shadow prices over the years due to climate shocks and extreme events. The simulations reveal that the adaptation strategies contribute to reverse the adverse impacts of climate shocks on farm income. The combination of supplementary irrigation in cotton production and the possibility of finding available labor appears to be the best measure that mitigates the adverse effects of climate shocks. The results of the vulnerability and resilience analysis indicate that the situation of many villages has improved between 1998 and 2012. On average, farmers in the agro-ecological zone I are the most resilient, followed by those in agro-ecological zone III, agro-ecological zone IV and lastly agro-ecological zone II. Forecasts depict that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on farm households’ and communities’ resilience levels. There is an indisputable role for irrigation agriculture - not only in cotton production - to play in boosting production and fighting poverty in the Niger basin of Benin. Moreover, results indicating significant differences among communities and agro-ecological zones suggest that adaptation technologies should be targeted to the various villages and agro-ecological zones to enhance their specific adaptation potential. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Economics Sun, 01 Mar 2015 00:00:00 GMT http://197.159.135.214/jspui/handle/123456789/144 2015-03-01T00:00:00Z