Climate Change and Human Habitat - Batch 4

Impacts of Urban Land Use and Topography on Land Surface Temperature and Public Health in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Impacts of Urban Land Use and Topography on Land Surface Temperature and Public Health in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Ouedraogo, Valentin Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes induced by urbanisation constitute a key driver in surface thermal properties modification, which intensifies Land Surface Temperature (LST) in rapidly urbanising areas. The aim of this research was to analyse the patterns of urban LULC changes induced LST and its public health implications in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. For this purpose, Landsat images were used to map LULC for four selected years including 2003, 2009, 2015 and 2021, using Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Gradient Tree Boost algorithms in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. MODIS/Aqua LST and ERA5-Land average air temperature datasets with Mann Kendall trend test were used to assess the LST and air temperature trends respectively. Aggregation was used in combination with correlation to establish the link between LULC and LST at the pixel level. Also, correlation analysis was employed to determine the relationship between LST and air temperature, and between LST and selected public diseases. Markov chain and Multiple linear regression models were employed to predict future LULC and LST. The study revealed that Ouagadougou experienced more rapid changes in LULC than Bobo-Dioulasso, with a maximum annual change intensity of 3.61 percent recorded between 2015 and 2021 as against 2.22 per cent in Bobo-Dioulasso for the period 2009 – 2015. The transition of changes was towards built-up areas, which gains targeted bare land and agricultural lands in both cities. This situation has led to the increase of built-up surface in Ouagadougou by 78.12 per cent, while 42.24 per cent of the agricultural land area was lost. However, in Bobo-Dioulasso, the built-up area has increased far more by 140.67 percent and the agricultural land areas experienced a gain of 1.38 per cent compared with the 2003 baseline. Both cities experienced an increasing trend in LST and air temperature (z value >0) with a greater increase in Ouagadougou than Bobo-Dioulasso, due to urbanisation. The global yearly trend was supported by the March-April-May (MAM) season, which shows a statistically significant trend in Ouagadougou (p-value=0.009). The LST and air temperature exhibited a stronger correlation in Bobo-Dioulasso (R=0.83) than in Ouagadougou (R=0.76). In the study area, at the pixel level, the built-up proportion showed a moderate positive correlation with the LST (0.44≤R≤0.64 in Ouagadougou, 0.49≤R≤0.61 in Bobo-Dioulasso), while the non-built-up proportion was negatively correlated with LST (-0.41≤R≤-0.6 in Ouagadougou, -0.49≤R≤-0.59 in Bobo-Dioulasso). The difference in LST between a fully built-up pixel and a fully non-built-up pixel decreased from 2003 to 2021 in both cities indicating that the LST increased in all LULC types throughout the study period. The contribution of the non-built-up class to urban cooling was lower in Bobo-Dioulasso (between 0.29°C and 1.39°C) than in Ouagadougou (between 0.74°C and 1.94°C). The research also found that malaria and dengue fever had a weak correlation with LST (R<0.4), while meningitis presented a moderate correlation in the districts of Dafra (R=0.56) and Konsa (R=0.49) in Bobo-Dioulasso) and Sig-Noghin (R=0.66) in Ouagadougou. Only the district of Do in Bobo-Dioulasso showed a strong correlation (R=0.86) with the LST. With projected increases in LST under the Business-as-usual scenario, the prevalence of temperature-related diseases may increase. In summary, the study area experienced an increase in human footprint, which contributed to the intensification of the LST which is an environmental threat to urban dwellers. These findings constitute a useful decision support for sustainable urban planning. It is therefore recommended that afforestation should be vigorously pursued at all governmental levels to step down the LST in the two cities. While sponsored research should be carried out to deepen the knowledge on LST and epidemic in the nation. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat

Climate Change and Land Use Impacts on Migration and Food Security in North Central Region of Nigeria

Fri, 01 Dec 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Climate Change and Land Use Impacts on Migration and Food Security in North Central Region of Nigeria Okeleye, Sunday Opeyemi Challenges brought on by climate and land use changes have a negative impact on food security in a variety of ways. These changes have impacts on ecosystem products and services leading to migration of people, particularly rural residents. In order to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes in the selected States of the North Central Region of Nigeria (Niger, Kwara, and Benue), as well as their consequent impacts on migration and food security in these areas, this study used NASA Power Data, multispectral satellite remote sensing, net migration data, crop yields data, expert interviews, focus group discussions, and household survey (structured questionnaire) methods. The spatio-temporal changes in climate parameters (minimum, maximum, and average temperatures; and rainfall) between 1985 and 2020 were assessed using the Mann-Kendal test and non-parametric test. Landsat images were utilised to extract remote sensing data and images for 1990, 2000, 2013, and 2020. The link between the climate parameters, net migration and crop yields (maize, yam, cassava, rice, and groundnut) was investigated using regression analyses. The focus group discussion, expert interview, and questionnaire were all analysed using descriptive statistics. The results indicated an upward trend in the annual temperature of Niger (p<0.0001, α=0.05, Q=0.059) and Benue (p<0.0001, α=0.05, Q=0.044) and downward trend in the annual rainfall of Niger State (p=0.006, α=0.05, Q=-14.324) and Benue State (p=0.010, α=0.05, Q=-11.661) but no significant trend in both temperature (p=0.099, α=0.05, Q=0.012) and rainfall (p=0.902, α=0.05, Q=-0.328) of Kwara State. The results of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) of the areas between1990-2020 show that the majority of the vegetation, agricultural land, and water body areas have been converted to built-up areas and barren land in Kwara and Benue States, whereas there has been a noticeable rise in agricultural land (45.29 per cent increase) and built-up areas (4.41per cent increase) in Niger State. Furthermore, in Niger State, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between maize yields and temperature (p=0.0294, α=0.05, t= -2.4469, R2=0.417) while there was a statistically insignificant relationship between temperature and other crops. There was a statistically insignificant relationship between average annual temperature and all the five food crops in Kwara State. Also, in Benue State, there was a statistically significant positive relationship between temperature and groundnut (p=0.0119, α=0.05, t= 2.924, R2=0.310) but statistically insignificant relationship between temperature and other crops. In addition, there was a statistically significant positive relationship between rainfall and maize yields (p=0.00036, α=0.05, t= 4.779, R2=0.0217) and cassava yields (p=0.0112, α=0.05, t= 2.951, R2=0.218) in Niger State and there was also a statistically significant positive relationship between rainfall and maize yields (p=0.0405, α=0.05, t= 2.274, R2=0.0360) and cassava yields (p=0.0326, α=0.05, t= 2.392, R2=0.0472) in Kwara State but a statistically insignificant relationship between rainfall and other crops in these two States whereas in Benue State, there was a statistically significant positive relationship between rainfall and maize yields (p=0.000216, α=0.05, t= 5.0674, R2=0.4073), cassava yields (p<0.00001, α=0.05, t= 24.5975, R2=0.34016) and rice yields (p=0.000613, α=0.05, t= 4.48553, R2=0.1532) but there was a statistically insignificant relationship between rainfall and other crops. These findings imply that climate change and land use change have caused the increase in rural-urban migration leading to the fluctuation in the yields of the five crops. Changing of farming methods, income diversification, supports from external bodies, and change of profession were all mentioned by respondents as sustainable adaptation strategies that help them to reduce the negative impacts of climate change, land use change, and migration. It is recommended that the relevant stakeholders should provide adequate weather forecasts, climate smart technologies and an attractive environment to boost agricultural production and reduce rate of rural-urban migration. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat

Risk and Adaptation Behaviour to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Rural Communities in Ghana

Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Risk and Adaptation Behaviour to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Rural Communities in Ghana Adade, Richard Most coastal rural communities in Ghana are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise because of poverty, remoteness and isolation from central planning agencies. Understanding future sea-level rise (SLR) risk levels and community adaptation behavior is critical in implementing climate change adaptation strategies. This study assessed the risk level of sea rise and adaptation behavior within three coastal rural communities in Ghana namely, Sawoma, Anlo Beach and Glefe-wiaboman. The study employed an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines spatial data (UAV and satellite imagery), questionnaire surveys, Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and expert knowledge. Data obtained from both primary and secondary were analysed to generate scores for each component of risk based on the IPPCC AR5 climate risk concept which was then aggregated to obtain risk level scores for each study community. The study utilized a multistage sampling technique to select household respondents and purposive sampling for participants for the Focus Group Discussion (FDG). Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to quantitatively describe and summarize the data collected. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was employed to simulate the effects of various sea level rise scenarios on rural coastal communities. Multinomial logistic regression was then employed to identify the factors that predict residents' intention to relocate. Results from the study indicated that cumulative impacts resulting from both erosion/accretion and inundation, on average of about 1.67 ± 0.72 km2 of rural coastal community land will likely be impacted for up to 1.4 m SLR scenario for Sawoma (0.11 ± 0.03 km2), Anlo Beach (0.38 ± 0.12 km2) and Glefe-wiaboman (0.18 ± 0.56 km2). Socio-ecological vulnerability levels were high in areas where there were human settlements and critical ecosystems. The levels varied between 0.43 and 0.60, with Anlo Beach recording the highest score of 0.60, as anticipated due to its highest ecological vulnerability score. Sawoma and Glefe-wiaboman reported vulnerability scores of 0.43 and 0.49, respectively. In terms of risk to SLR, Glefe-wiaboman community will likely be at high-risk (0.75 – 1) whilst Anlo beach and Sawoma likely be at medium (0.25 – 0.49) and low-risk (0 – 0.24) levels respectively. The high SLR risk level in Glefe-wiaboman is exacerbated by its low-lying topography, high population density and beach sand mining. Also, the study revealed that cognitive and compositional factors (p-value < 0.05) are more important than contextual factors for predicting the relocation intention of coastal rural communities in Ghana. Thus, the study advocated for intensive education on the effects of future sea-level rise impacts on communities and the benefits of relocating vulnerable coastal rural communities. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat

An assessment of Sustainable Urban Greenery Planning in the Changing Climate ff Porto-Novo And Parakou in the Republic of Benin

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT

An assessment of Sustainable Urban Greenery Planning in the Changing Climate ff Porto-Novo And Parakou in the Republic of Benin Akakpo, Bokon Alexis Cities in developing countries in Africa and notably many cities in Republic of Benin are still scarcely informed about the growth trend and its influence on the extra changes for further sustainability needs. The patterns of urbanisation are causing multiple problems to urban green spaces (UGS) and the holistic management and planning are crucial for urban sustainable environment. The aim of this study is to generate both quantitative and qualitative information on urban green landscape of studied cities in order to support the sustainable development through land use planning. Three multi-date satellite imageries, “Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre” (SPOT) 4 of 2000, SPOT 5 of 2010 and Google Earth Pro V 7.3 images (Landsat/Copernicus) of 2020 were used to generate data and examine occurred changes over two decades time. Google Earth Landsat/Copernicus images in 2022 were digitalized to extract data from individual layer of different categories of UGS. Ripley function was applied to assess pattern and distribution of UGS and landscape metrics were computed to quantify UGS configuration. Monthly satellite derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) series were also collected using Google Earth Engine open-source while observed air temperature (AT) were obtained at National Meteorological Agency to examine seasonal variation of NDVI and a simple linear regression was applied to show the relationship between AT and NDVI. Questionnaires were used with 800 interviewees to assess resident perception on the existing greenery spaces, the prerogative for environmental safeguard, and the determinant of resident’s willingness for urban greenery improvement. The results showed the built-up areas exert incredible pressure on non-built-up areas in the both cities except on water body class. Crop lands were the most threatened in the cities (around 24 per cent and 46 per cent were respectively converted to built-up areas in Porto-Novo and Parakou). An average of 40 per cent of city bushes were also under threat in Parakou from 2000 to 2020. A significant difference (p-value ≤ 0.000) between UGS categories that were all in the aggregative distribution within cities was found. Furthermore, no significant linear trend (p-values > 0.05) was found, and NDVI was decreasing from 2000 to 2011 (0.21 to 0.19) and increased up (0.19 to 0.23) until 2020. In addition, a significant difference (p-value < 0.001) was shown between climatic seasons and the periods of January to March and April to June showed the lowest values (0.137 and 0.145) of NDVI respectively in Porto-Novo and Parakou. It was also found a positive correlation (r = + 0.56 and + 0.76) between annual mean AT and NDVI during the dry seasons respectively in Porto-Novo and Parakou. Moreover, around 80 per cent of existing urban greeneries are mostly located in the core of the town and the state of the density and diversity of these greenery areas were differently perceived in the borough of each city. The main benefits lost from urban greenery were air quality (45.25 per cent) for Parakou and cooling effect (74 per cent) for Porto-Novo and the causes of these losses depended also on the cities and the districts within the cities. Public participation was perceived to be low (> 85 per cent) and the institutional cooperation with local communities, educational level and knowledge on greening main impacts must be improved to foster the involvement of people in urban greenery development. The effective enforcement of urban land use policies and the update of urban planning to climate change effects are recommended for each city. Decision-making should also establish specific strategies or actions for the development, improvement or conservation of each UGS configuration categories. Smart urban management of water availability such as greenery irrigation should be helpful for ensuring the sustainable urban surface temperature mitigation. It was also suggested the enhancement of resident commitment for urban green space improvement and development through the operative institutional cooperation. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat