Climate Change and Human Habitat - Batch 4

Green Spaces Development and their Contributions to Sustainable Climate Change Resilience of Bamako and Sikasso Cities in Mali

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Green Spaces Development and their Contributions to Sustainable Climate Change Resilience of Bamako and Sikasso Cities in Mali Fomba, Mohamed Urban green spaces (UGS) play an essential role in providing urban ecosystem services and creating a livable environment for urban residents. Increasing land use, land cover change, and climate change have considerable impacts on urban green spaces and their ecosystem services. These impacts result in a loss of urban green space and particularly weaken the climate resilience of urban populations. In order to assess urban green spaces and their ecosystem services provided in Bamako and Sikasso, as well as their planning approach design for sustainable land use system and climate change resilience of Bamako and Sikasso. This study made use of remote sensing, Google Earth, Landsat imagery data from 1990 to 2020, climatic data (from Mali-méteo), and structured questionnaires for household surveys. From 1990 until 2020, remote sensing data and images were extracted from Landsat photos. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Mann-Kendal test, and non-parametric test were used to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamical changes in climate variables (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures) between 1990 and 2020. Descriptive statistics were used to examine all semi-structured interviews in order to ascertain how the public views green areas and the ecosystem services they offer. In addition, a climatic analysis was carried out using rainfall and temperature data from 1990 to 2020 in order to evaluate the climate variability and its effects on urban green spaces according to the population's perception. A maximum likelihood classification was applied for the classification of LULCs. The results of the LULC analysis showed that most of the natural vegetation has decreased in both cities and has been converted into built-up areas, farmland, and bare land. The built-up area increased in Bamako between 1990 and 2020 from 22.08% to 54.37% and in Sikasso from 20.49% to 48.81%, while vegetation decreased in both cities. The results of the survey indicate that the majority of respondents have a strong relationship (social cohesion) with green spaces (96.13%) and attribute a good status to green spaces in Sikasso (64.59%). Rainfall in the two cities is statistically insignificant; however, seasonal minimum temperatures in Bamako City differ statistically significantly (p=0.0001, R2=0.4027). The seasonal minimum temperature (p=0.0001, R2=0.476) and seasonal maximum temperature (p=0.0001, R2=0.6448) in Sikasso differ statistically significantly due to climate change and entropic activities. Bamako city has higher temperature than Sikasso because Sikasso is located in the humid and sub-humid zones, with high vegetation density while Bamako is located in the Sudanese climate zone. The highest values for ecosystem services in both cities are provisioning services. These results can be used to set up some policies on urban green spaces management and development, and solve some climate issues in cities in order to improve sustainable cities and climate change resilience, through green spaces and ecosystems services provided. However, the promotion of UGS, perceived by the population as an appropriate way to reduce climate change in cities, are necessaries. In order to provide ecosystem services that increase Mali's cities' resistance to climate change, this study suggests safeguarding, preserving, and improving urban green spaces. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat

Climate Change Induced Sea Level Rise along the Coastland of Togo

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 00:00:00 GMT

Climate Change Induced Sea Level Rise along the Coastland of Togo Konko, Yawo Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon with disastrous implications ranging from ocean warming and glacier melting to sea level rise and coastal damage. In recent decades, the majority of the world's coastal countries have seen tremendous population growth in their coastal districts. Coastal erosion is growing increasingly common as global temperatures rise, displacing coastal inhabitants and damaging towns and socioeconomic infrastructure, making sustainable management of coastal areas extremely difficult. One means for sustainable management and decision-making is to have information on the trend of climatic parameters at the local scale, the settlement pattern, the spatial distribution and dynamics of coastal peoples, the coastal erosion kinematics, the coastal erosion hotspots, the coastal vulnerability to sea level rise and inundation, and the coastal vulnerability to sea level rise and inundation. This research contributes to the understanding of the range of climatic characteristics, spatial distribution and dynamics of coastal peoples, coastal erosion kinematics, and coastal sensitivity to sea level rise and inundation in Togo, West Africa. Images from satellites (Landsat and Sentinel-2), population data, field data, geographical data, and ground truth Climatic data, specifically precipitation, temperature, wind speed, sunshine, and tidal gauge, were used from 1988 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope test were used to analyse climate trends, while the Object-Based Image Analysis method was used to map settlement areas. The Support Vector Machine method was used to extract the shoreline, and the kinematics were evaluated using the statistical linear regression method.The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model was used to assess coastal vulnerability to sea level rise and inundation. Temperature and sea level rise showed a substantial annual trend, according to the findings. The temperature analysis showed an increase of trend of 0. 038 °C/year while the tidal gauge data analysis showed an increase of trend of 13.75 mm/year. The other annual climatic parameters trend record variability which are not significant. However, the monthly analysis revealed the months of the year in which the trends are significant. According to statistical analysis of settlement dynamics, Togo's Maritime region, which had a population of 1,042,385 people in 1980, experienced population increase ranging from 2.06% to 11.85% between 1988 and 2020. The equivalent yearly expansion rate is 6.15 ha/year from 1988 to 2000, 23.41 ha/year from 2000 to 2015, and 40.16 ha/year from 2015 to 2020. In 2022, the Maritime region has reached a population of 3,534,991 people. In addition, near the sea, the pattern of settlement areas is compacted with high density of peoples. In the inland this pattern is dispersed. In terms of shoreline kinematics, the Togolese coast has an average erosion rate ranging from 1.66 to 5.25 m per year. Four erosion hotspots were recorded respectively on transect of Alogavi, Devi-Kinme, Agbavi, and Baguida. One accretion hotspot was recorded in the port area towards Adawlato. For coastal vulnerability model, high vulnerability is observed on the Baguida-Agbodrafo section, moderate vulnerability is observed in the Adawlato area and Agbodrafo-Aneho section, the low vulnerability is located in the port area. According to the findings, land in Togo's coastal zone is in great demand, the rate of settlement is increasing, and the temperature and sea level are rising. Taking this information into account can help to determine the extent of climate change phenomena and draw up suitable coastal management and adaptation plans at the country scale. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat

Evaluation of Projected Distribution of New Urban Climates and Its Implications for Nigeria

Sat, 01 Jun 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Evaluation of Projected Distribution of New Urban Climates and Its Implications for Nigeria Asonibare, Femi Oluwatosin Responding to the threats of climate change by cities requires taking relevant actions that will communicate future conditions in reliable and effective manner for sustainable and transformational climate actions. As the population of urban areas in Nigeria continues to rise and changes in climate condition continue to have profound implications on the urban residents, a better understanding of the implication of these changes has informed this study. The study presents the current and future climatic conditions of major Nigerian cities in the past and the implications for future sustainable city related actions. The future climates of the cities were identified in the past under the different representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 (mitigation scenario), RCP8.5 (emissions continuing to rise throughout the 21st century). The climate similarity was calculated using CMIP5 data set which is a downscaled and biased-corrected projections of future climate for total monthly precipitation and average temperature (running mean of 2030s) and (running mean of 2050s). The results revealed that the climate of the cities in the current and future periods will be similar to conditions of another place on the globe during the historical period; Kano city will experience even more drastic changes because of the low level of similarity which is an indication of climate novelty; the new places found with similar temperature conditions are generally to the south of the corresponding cities thus indicating warming. The results also revealed that for temperature indices, the highest warming in minimum temperature is in Kano and Abuja while reduction in the number of cool nights and days occurred in all the cities. Precipitation indices show that the highest increase in the total precipitation is in Lagos at 124mm per decade while Kano shows a reduction of (-95mm per decade). A significantly increasing trend in the hottest day and warmest nights and the decreasing trends in the occurrence of cool days is an indication of warming for the cities. These are indications of increased exposure of the urban areas to climate disasters such as floods, heatwaves, and in Kano, water scarcity. By providing information on the future or current conditions of the cities in the historical period, land managers and city planners will understand and contextualize the future. Drawing from the interaction between cities and their analogues, the study highlighted sustainable city related actions such as the incorporations of urban designs and policies to enhance human thermal comfort as adaptation and solution strategies. While future research might apply qualitative studies and additional data to support the analogue results, our findings can guide the understanding and application of the analogue approach into environmental issues in Nigeria and other West African countries in accordance to sustainable city goals (SDG 11). A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat

Impacts of Urban Land Use and Topography on Land Surface Temperature and Public Health in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMT

Impacts of Urban Land Use and Topography on Land Surface Temperature and Public Health in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Ouedraogo, Valentin Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes induced by urbanisation constitute a key driver in surface thermal properties modification, which intensifies Land Surface Temperature (LST) in rapidly urbanising areas. The aim of this research was to analyse the patterns of urban LULC changes induced LST and its public health implications in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. For this purpose, Landsat images were used to map LULC for four selected years including 2003, 2009, 2015 and 2021, using Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Gradient Tree Boost algorithms in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. MODIS/Aqua LST and ERA5-Land average air temperature datasets with Mann Kendall trend test were used to assess the LST and air temperature trends respectively. Aggregation was used in combination with correlation to establish the link between LULC and LST at the pixel level. Also, correlation analysis was employed to determine the relationship between LST and air temperature, and between LST and selected public diseases. Markov chain and Multiple linear regression models were employed to predict future LULC and LST. The study revealed that Ouagadougou experienced more rapid changes in LULC than Bobo-Dioulasso, with a maximum annual change intensity of 3.61 percent recorded between 2015 and 2021 as against 2.22 per cent in Bobo-Dioulasso for the period 2009 – 2015. The transition of changes was towards built-up areas, which gains targeted bare land and agricultural lands in both cities. This situation has led to the increase of built-up surface in Ouagadougou by 78.12 per cent, while 42.24 per cent of the agricultural land area was lost. However, in Bobo-Dioulasso, the built-up area has increased far more by 140.67 percent and the agricultural land areas experienced a gain of 1.38 per cent compared with the 2003 baseline. Both cities experienced an increasing trend in LST and air temperature (z value >0) with a greater increase in Ouagadougou than Bobo-Dioulasso, due to urbanisation. The global yearly trend was supported by the March-April-May (MAM) season, which shows a statistically significant trend in Ouagadougou (p-value=0.009). The LST and air temperature exhibited a stronger correlation in Bobo-Dioulasso (R=0.83) than in Ouagadougou (R=0.76). In the study area, at the pixel level, the built-up proportion showed a moderate positive correlation with the LST (0.44≤R≤0.64 in Ouagadougou, 0.49≤R≤0.61 in Bobo-Dioulasso), while the non-built-up proportion was negatively correlated with LST (-0.41≤R≤-0.6 in Ouagadougou, -0.49≤R≤-0.59 in Bobo-Dioulasso). The difference in LST between a fully built-up pixel and a fully non-built-up pixel decreased from 2003 to 2021 in both cities indicating that the LST increased in all LULC types throughout the study period. The contribution of the non-built-up class to urban cooling was lower in Bobo-Dioulasso (between 0.29°C and 1.39°C) than in Ouagadougou (between 0.74°C and 1.94°C). The research also found that malaria and dengue fever had a weak correlation with LST (R<0.4), while meningitis presented a moderate correlation in the districts of Dafra (R=0.56) and Konsa (R=0.49) in Bobo-Dioulasso) and Sig-Noghin (R=0.66) in Ouagadougou. Only the district of Do in Bobo-Dioulasso showed a strong correlation (R=0.86) with the LST. With projected increases in LST under the Business-as-usual scenario, the prevalence of temperature-related diseases may increase. In summary, the study area experienced an increase in human footprint, which contributed to the intensification of the LST which is an environmental threat to urban dwellers. These findings constitute a useful decision support for sustainable urban planning. It is therefore recommended that afforestation should be vigorously pursued at all governmental levels to step down the LST in the two cities. While sponsored research should be carried out to deepen the knowledge on LST and epidemic in the nation. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Human Habitat