Climate Change and Adapted Land Use - Batch 3

Assessment of the Response of Land Surface Temperature to Land Use and Land Cover in Kano Metropolis and its Suburbs

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Assessment of the Response of Land Surface Temperature to Land Use and Land Cover in Kano Metropolis and its Suburbs Simon, Susan Ojochide Kano State is faced with increasing air and surface temperature caused as a result of the continuous development activities, constructions and influx of people to the state. The study therefore analyses the development of land surface temperature (LST) on different land cover and land use categories and to determine the possible impact of the various class on LST. Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIR), multi-temporal remote sensing satellite data of 2015 and 2016 were used to retrieve LST and derive land use and land cover classification map using random forest machine learning algorithm and various land cover indices such as Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Difference Built Index (NDBI) and Modified Normalised Difference Water Index (MNDWI) were derived using R statistics software. These land cover indices were used to examine the landscape attributes, characteristics and to further understand the cause-effect relationship between LST and LULC using a Pearson’s correlation analysis and simple linear regression model. LULC classification map showed that using several multi-temporal satellite imageries for classification to extract biophysical information provide a more accurate result with a kappa coefficient of 1.017 and 1.013 and overall accuracy of above 85% which showed an excellent agreement between the map and ground truth data. The retrieved LST pointed out that land surface temperature could be as high as 38oC to 40oC in hot seasons and as low as 22oC to 25oC in wet seasons. LST values were extracted for the different land cover and land use class and result revealed that there is a decreasing trend of LST all through the season from built up areas (such as residential, commercial and industrial) which recorded a higher LST to water bodies (such as lakes, ponds, streams and rivers) which showed a low LST value. The correlation analysis generated between LST and the three land cover indices showed that for all time steps MNDWI showed a negative correlation with LST (-0.313 to -0.686 and -0.208 to -0.786 in 2015 and 2016 respectively). Likewise, NDVI showed a higher negative correlation of between -0.127 to -0.436 and -0.137 to -0.389 in 2015 and 2016 respectively. While, NDBI revealed a high positive correlation with LST of between 0.491 to 0.804 and 0.666 to 0.839 in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect was described by determining hot and cold spots areas with the core of the study area characterised to be hotspot areas while the periphery and most notably the western part of the study area where irrigation fed agriculture are practiced characterised to be cold spot areas and this explains why there is a decreasing trend of surface temperature as one move from the core to the periphery. This study infer that vegetation plays a vital role in weakening LST and recommend that tree planting campaign should be carried out, landscaping should be done alongside road or bridge constructions, urban greening concept should be carried out by town planners and individuals to reduce the effect of UHI. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Assessment and Prediction of Climate Variability Impact on Land Use Land Cover Change in Sikasso Region, Mali

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Assessment and Prediction of Climate Variability Impact on Land Use Land Cover Change in Sikasso Region, Mali Sidibe, Mohamed Climate change and variability are worldwide phenomena and their impact is different in nature from one region to the other. In that context, this study focused on the assessment and prediction of climate variability impact on Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) in Sikasso region, Mali with focus on agricultural lands. Three objectives were achieved in this study: (1) assess changes in LULC, (2) examine climate variability and its impact on agricultural LULC and (3) predict future changes in LULC by 2030 and 2050. The dataset composed of time series satellite images from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra for the years 2000, 2008 and 2016, monthly rainfall and temperature from 1981 to 2016 for the four main meteorological stations across the study area and socioeconomic information. The Savitzky-Golay (SG) filtering process (smoothing) was performed on Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series images with TimeSat software and an ISODATA classification scheme adopted for four main classes which are cropland, vegetation, water and others. Standardised anomaly, Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test were used to analyse rainfall and temperature data. Pearson's Chi-square test of association was performed on questionnaire data to determine whether climate variability has impact on LULCC and the prediction was carried out using Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model. The LULCC analysis showed that agricultural lands increased by 4 % (129,665 ha) between the year 2000 and 2016 and the vegetation cover decreased by -1 % (30,000 ha) during the same period; water bodies increased and the class others decreased. The expansion of agricultural lands and decreases in vegetation cover are expected to continue. Furthermore, the mean temperature increased from 1981 to 2016 at the rate of 0.3 °C per decade and the minimum temperature recorded the highest rate of increase (0.44 °C per decade); on monthly basis, the highest deviations in the temperature were observed in the months of November (+1.24 °C), March (+0.69 °C) and October (+0.67 °C) while lowest was observed in the month of February (+0.15 °C). At 5 % significance level, an increasing trend was detected in the regional annual average rainfall and the amount of rainfall during the rainy season (for years after 2010) was considerably higher than the climatological mean-normal (1981-2016) except the years 2011 and 2013. The LULC model revealed that cropland will increase by 6.54 % (217,599 ha) between the period 2016-2030 and 18.58 % (618,179 ha) in 2016-2050. Vegetation will decrease by -11.14 % (-357,149 ha) between 2016-2030 and by -34.49 % (-1,105,814 ha) by 2050. Generally, the observed increment in annual and seasonal rainfall was not the primary factor for the expansion of agricultural lands as questionnaire analysis revealed that farmers' decisions to bring changes in their farms size was rather a function of market prices, changes in production systems, access to improved seeds and number of male workers. The intensification of LULCC as apparent from the model predictions and spatio-temporal climatic pattern signals the need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies that will minimize the sensitivity and exposure as well enhance the resilience of the Sikasso region to the anticipated changes. Further study should address rainfall variability in terms of its intra seasonal distribution and impact on agricultural production in the region. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Implications of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Pastoral Resources and Practices within Kompienga Province, Burkina Faso

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Implications of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Pastoral Resources and Practices within Kompienga Province, Burkina Faso Sanou, Charles Lamoussa The aim of this research work was to assess implications of climate and land use/land cover changes on pastoral resources and practices of herders in Kompienga province. The climatic data (1981-2016), Landsat images (1989-2015) and survey data were retrieved and analysed. Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall test, and Standardized Anomalies Index (SAI) analysis were conducted on rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration data. Furthermore, rain onset, cessation, Length of Rainy Season (LRS) and Number of Rainy Days (NRD) were computed from daily rainfall data. In addition, deviations from a reference (climatology: 1981-2010), of each climatic variable were determined. Images classification was performed using Random Forest Algorithm in R-Software R 3.3.2. Changes detection and land use/cover prediction were done using MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation). Survey data were collected from 271 respondents (pastoralists, agro-pastoralits). Since 2011, annual rainfall amount was found lower than that of the climatology (877.8 mm), while temperature (minimum and maximum), RH and EPT of the other year were greater. An upward trend of temperature and the NRD were depicted at 95 % confident level. The minimum temperature was found evolving faster (0.50 °C per decade) than the maximum temperature (0.20 °C per decade). The period studied was characterized by more wet year (17 %) than dry year (14 %) while the normal year were predominant (69 %). Rain onset, cessation, LRS were highly variable compared to the average onset (15th June), cessation (15th October) and LRS (110.9 days) of the climatology. Land use dynamics was characterized by an increase in croplands at an average rate of 46.7 % per year, between 1989 and 2015. On the contrary a decline of grazable areas was observed since 2001 at an average rate of 6.0 % per year. Generally, results of climatic and images analysis were corroborated by respondents’ perceptions. Respondents similarly depicted an increase in cropping areas (98.5 % of respondents) to the detriment of pasture land (97.8 % of respondents). In addition, 93.4 % of respondent depicted an increase in temperature while 97.8 % depicted a decreasing rainfall pattern. Climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics are negatively affecting forage availability (in quality and quantity); livestock production and reproduction performance; herders’ practices, their livelihoods and the cohabitation of herding and crop farming. To adapt to these impacts, respondents adopt local adaptations strategies such as the use of crop residue (93.7 %%), fodder trees (77.1 %%), Fattening/Destocking (88.2 %%), Prayers and other rites (94.5 %%), transhumance (97.0 %%), f ee d supplement (99.3 %%) and use of ground water (65.3 %%). The LULC is likely to keep evolving to the detriment of pasture lands in the next 10 and 20 coming year (Kappa coefficient = 0.7). The vegetation is likely to decreased from 85.9 % in 1989 to 75.7 % and 74.7 % in 2025 and 2045. On the contrary cropland areas which accounted for 0.8 % of land area in 1989 might increase up to 22.1 % in 2025 and slightly decrease in 2045 (21.9 %). This is consistent with respondents' perceptions on the future of pastoral herding in the province with a high probability to abandon this activity. Beyond, strategies adopted by respondents, urgent actions at both national and international level, need to be undertake to tackle side effects of the coupled climate and lands use and cover dynamics. That might successfully reduce the vulnerability of pastoral communities in Kompienga province, Burkina Faso. A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Heat Wave Characteristics in Different Climatic Zones of Nigeria

Thu, 01 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMT

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Heat Wave Characteristics in Different Climatic Zones of Nigeria Ragatoa, Dakéga Saberma African countries are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially climate extremes. Heat Waves (HW) (prolonged extreme heat over an area) are projected to become very long and more intense in the upcoming decades and will therefore seriously affect health, infrastructures and especially agriculture that is the main economic activity. This study investigates the heat wave characteristics in different climatic zones in Nigeria over a long period considering the present and the future temperature conditions. The objectives were specified to: analyse the temperature trend in Nigeria, analyse HWs occurrence from 1981 to 2016 in the different climatic zones (Coastal, Tropical Rainforest, Guinea Savannah, Sudan Savannah and the Sahel) in Nigeria, predict the future aspects of HWs to projected 2100 and evaluate the future trend of HW characteristics. ERA-INTERIM reanalysis daily minimum and maximum temperature data from 1981 to 2016 were collected from ECMWF data base and used as the present time. Observation data, 17 stations data were also obtained from NiMet across the country. CORDEX-AFRICA Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model outputs from 2018 to 2100 were obtained with the same parameters from GSP WACS, F.U.T Akure under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Five heat wave characteristics were studied, namely the heat wave number (HWN), duration (HWD), frequency (HWF), amplitude (HWA) and magnitude (HWM) using four definitions: TX90 and TN90 that are temperature based 90th percentile thresholds; Excess Heat Factor (EHF); and the Heat Waves Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The trend analysis was performed on the observed daily minimum and maximum temperature for the 17 stations. The Modified Mann- Kendall trend test was performed because of the serial correlation in the data, and the results showed significant increasing and significant decreasing trends. The slope was very low in many stations. The study of HW characteristics in different climatic zones revealed that from 1981 to 2016, HWs occurred and covered more zones in the last decades. The Sahel was really affected by the highest number of events and the highest number of days for the duration and the frequency. The HWMId was used to quantify the intensity of HWs in the present time and revealed super extreme HWs in the Sahel and extreme HWs in the South. The prediction using WRF under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has shown an aerial increase in the frequency and magnitude of HWs all over the period under consideration. In the 2050s, there will be spatial increase and also an increase in the duration of HWs in almost all the Nigerian land. Even the Coastal zone will be having super extreme (HWMId >= 32) HWs. The RCP8.5 revealed more dramatic and dreadful HWs from 2073. The trend of each of the characteristics using the different definitions under the two scenarios from 1981-2100 revealed significant trends (p-value < 0.05) of many zones and the magnitude of the trends (Sen’s slope) was revealed to be positively very low for some characteristics using some definitions and high (3.5) for other characteristics. Similarly, there are also negative slopes (-0.03). This study could help in agricultural decisions based on climatic zones and also in the infrastructures adjustments and mainly health domain considering that HWs will be more frequent and more intense in the near future time A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree in Climate Change and Adapted Land Use