The Economic and environmental implications of E-ammonia and E-methanol production in three industrial sites in Liberia, Kenya and Egypt

Abstract

With response to the urgent global mandate to mitigate climate change and its far-reaching consequences, governments, industry leaders, and research institutions are increasingly exploring adaptive and sustainable energy solutions. The maritime transport sector, recognized as a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions has emerged as one of the main focus areas for decarbonization. This study investigates the economic and environmental implications of two energy carriers (e-methanol and e-ammonia) as alternative marine fuels, with a specific focus on three industrial production sites located in Kenya, Egypt, and Liberia. Employing a mixed-methodological approach, the study integrates quantitative modelling with qualitative case analysis. Key evaluation parameters include renewable energy potential, infrastructure requirements, water availability, land tenure considerations, and the application of carbon capture and nitrogen separation technologies. Operational expenditure, revenue streams, and levelized cost of e-methanol and e-ammonia are assessed to generate realistic profitability estimates. We use the AnyLogic simulation tool to perform system dynamics modelling, offering an integrated perspective that encompasses both engineering and economic dimensions. This modelling approach enhances the robustness and applicability of the findings, contributing valuable insights to the strategic deployment of e-fuels in the maritime sector. A key finding of the research is that green hydrogen represents a viable decarbonization pathway that facilitates sector coupling across the maritime transport domain. Leveraging this insight, the study conducts a cradle-to-gate and economic analysis of e-methanol and e-ammonia production, identifying the fuel that yields the most favorable balance of profitability and environmental benefit for shipping. Among the three sites examined, Liberia demonstrates the highest production output and profitability, outperforming Kenya and Egypt in overall viability.