The Role of Sustainable Energy on West African Economic Growth: Case study:Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Senegal

Abstract

In the context of climate change and fossil fuel depletion, west Africa must reconcile its growing energy demand with environmental sustainability. This study assesses the role of renewable energy in supporting long-term economic growth and reducing CO₂ emissions in Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal. The datas for this research was collected from world bank, scientific papers and some international websites. A quantitative scenario-based approach was applied, combining population and GDP projection (2024-2050) with a global regression model linking historical GDP per capita to historical electricity consumption per capita (2011-2024). Future electricity demand was estimated under pessimistic, medium, and optimistic growth scenarios and compared to the technically exploitable potential of solar, wind, and hydropower in each country. Results indicated that Mali and Senegal possess renewable energy potentials far exceeding future demand, enabling full decarbonization by 2050 under all scenarios. In contrast, Côte d'Ivoire’s exploitable renewable potential can cover only 60% of the projected 2050 needs in medium scenario and 33% for optimistic scenario, requiring complementary solutions such as biomass, storage and regional interconnections. Renewable energy transition plans were modelled for each country, progressively replacing fossil fuels with optimal mixes of solar, wind and hydro. CO₂ avoidance calculations show substantial mitigation potential: up to 61 million tons avoided in Mali,54 million in Senegal, and 17 million in Côte d’Ivoire by 2050. The findings confirm that renewable energy can simultaneously enhance energy security, foster economic growth, and reduce emissions in west Africa, provided that public policies priorities infrastructure investment and regional energy cooperation.