Potential Effects of Redd+ Policy on Landuse/ Land Cover Changes and Aboveground Carbon Stock in Ghana

Abstract

The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks (REDD+) mechanism promises to address commodity-driven deforestation while encouraging sustainable forest management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The wider choices made by farmers on their desire to comply with the tenets of REDD+ program and the carbon dynamics related to changes in land use will determine how well REDD+ works in Ghana. However, there is still a significant knowledge gap on how the implementation of REDD+ influences the dynamics of land use and aboveground carbon change, as well as how farmer choices and participation levels impact the program's performance. Taking the case of Assin South District under the Kakum Hotspot Intervention Area for REDD+, this research analyses the dynamics of aboveground carbon stock under business-as-usual (BAU) and REDD+ scenarios through land use modelling and prediction of future changes between 2019 and 2035 and the socioeconomic factors that influence farmers' choices of farming systems and land decisions and willingness to participate in REDD+. The Terrset Geospatial Monitoring and modelling System (TGMMS) software’s Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used for landuse modelling for 2024 and 2035 by applying the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network within the software. The carbon stock between 2019 and 2035 was estimated and valued using the InVEST carbon model. Above-ground carbon stock in Primary forest was significantly different from other land use at all ages. However, carbon stock in agroforestry at age classes 2 and 3 was not significantly different from secondary at age class 3. Carbon stock under REDD+ could increase by 13 % and 25 % over the BAU scenario in 2024 and 2035, respectively. Land use for crop production could be reduced by 17 – 32% in the same period. Age, years of farming, cocoa income, and distance to road and town have positive influences on the selection of monoculture cocoa farming, whilst marital status, total land holding, and input cost had a negative influence on the same selection. More than 90% of households were willing to participate in all REDD+ activities driven by immediate benefits with major reasons for participation in REDD+ being an increase in yield/income, benefits to be received under the program, sustainability of farms, and environmental reasons respectively. Age, marital status, cost of labour, land holding per capita, livestock income, input cost, distance to the town centre, and distance to the road significantly influenced their decisions. REDD+ project should consider climate-smart practices and the supply of farm inputs that improve the crop yield of farmers. REDD+ actors should promote farm intensification using appropriate technologies for future food security under REDD+. Education on REDD+ should be gender-specific and target factors such as income level (through alternative livelihood), and age.