Abstract:
Cocoa supports about 3.5 million people. Farmers produce each year 1.5 million
ton. This performance hides production constraints, the most is climate variability.
The climatic variables, temperature, precipitation, and 16 climatic indices were identified
to assess the potential impacts on cacao in the past year, currently and under
future climate. The climate data in the southern and central cocoa production zone
were analysed for periods of 2021–2050 and 2041–2070. The climate reference period
is 1981–2010. The climate projections are from the CORDEX RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The
results suggest an increase in daily temperature of 1.0–2.1°C in the central region and
0.9–2.0°C in the southern region by 2041–2070. Cocoa could be affected by the
projected changes, especially in the central region where the maximum daily temperature
at which production is reduced (33°C) would be exceeded between 92 and
142 days per year by this time horizon. The direction of changes in precipitation
cannot be established due to a lack of consensus between the climate models analysed.
However, the little rainy season would start slightly earlier, potentially reducing the
duration of the little dry season between the rainy seasons. The climate scenarios
enhanced deterioration of growing environment conditions. It is necessary to take
adaptation measures to mitigate climate impacts.
Description:
A Publication submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Land Use
