Climate risk and climate services perception, and the efficacy of adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture, The Gambia

Abstract

Climate variability and extreme weather events present growing challenges to agricultural systems globally, particularly for smallholder farmers in The Gambia who depend on rain-fed farming. Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns have worsened food insecurity, reduced harvests, and strained local adaptation efforts. This research aims to examine farmers' perceptions of climate risks, assess the factors influencing their access to and use of climate information, and evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies. The study was structured around three empirical essays based on data collected from 420 farm households across three agricultural regions in The Gambia in 2023. A combination of econometric and qualitative techniques including binary logistic regression, multinomial and multivariate probit models, and a perception index—was applied to analyse the data. Key findings reveal that age (35–55), access to markets, extension services, training on climate risks, and trust in media significantly enhance the use of climate information, which in turn is positively associated with adopting adaptation strategies. Results further show that land tenure, government support, and past weather shocks influence on-farm adaptation, while off-farm strategies are more common among middle-aged and female farmers. Gender disparities were evident, with women less likely to adopt formal adaptation measures. A perception index of 0.66 indicates a moderate level of confidence in the effectiveness of current adaptation and mitigation strategies, with farmers showing a strong preference for crop diversification and irrigation methods. The research underscores the importance of integrating farmers’ perceptions and local realities into national climate policies. Strengthening extension services, improving access to credit, and providing gender-sensitive support are critical for building resilient farming systems and advancing sustainable agricultural development in The Gambia.