Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Internal Migration in Burkina Faso

Abstract

This study addresses one of today's most pressing issues: the impact of climate change on migration, with a particular focus on internal migration in Burkina Faso. The research first examines the factors influencing migration and its consequences from the perspective of local actors in the provinces of Comoé, Ziro, Boulkiemdé and Oubritenga. A participatory approach was adopted, with local workshops serving as the main methodological tool to gather insights from affected communities. In addition to exploring the socio-economic and environmental determinants of climate-induced internal migration, the study examines how these migrations affect the well-being of migrants at their destinations. To account for selection bias and to capture the heterogeneity of migration outcomes, the marginal treatment effects methodology was applied. The analysis is based on cross-sectional data collected from 493 households in the province of Comoé. The study also examines the occurrence of droughts and their relationship with internal migration in the provinces of Comoé and Boulkiemdé. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used over 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales to assess drought conditions, while the Pearson correlation matrix was used to assess the relationship between drought and migration. From the perspective of local stakeholders, several key factors contribute to migration from areas of origin. Socio-economic constraints such as poverty, lack of employment opportunities, inadequate vocational training, population growth, and land scarcity, alongside environmental stressors such as drought and soil degradation, are identified as primary drivers of migration. Each of these factors was classified as being of greatest importance, receiving a weight of 3 in stakeholder assessments. Conversely, destination areas attract migrants primarily due to the availability of water and land, as well as favourable rainfall patterns. These factors were also assigned the highest importance level by stakeholders, with a weight of 3. While push factors are both socio-economic and environmental, pull factors are predominantly environmental. This pattern reflects the occupational profile of most migrants, who are primarily farmers seeking regions with climatic and environmental conditions more conducive to agricultural activities. Stakeholders further identified the most significant future repulsive factors for migration in specific provinces. In Oubritenga, drought and the absence of incentives or political interventions were cited as the most critical factors likely to drive further out-migration. In Boulkiemdé, land scarcity and inadequate vocational training emerged as the primary deterrents to long-term 4 settlement. These findings underscore the complex interplay of environmental, economic, and policy-related factors shaping internal migration patterns in Burkina Faso. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that environmental stressors are important migration drivers, especially insufficient rainfall, ongoing droughts, and soil infertility. Higher asset values are accumulated by migrants than by non-migrants, highlighting migration as a tactic for achieving economic resilience. The consequences of migration on remittances, however, are not uniform; although it reduces remittance flows for migrants, it may have favourable implications for non-migrants. The study emphasizes how migration can be both a vulnerability and an adaptation strategy, particularly for households that depend on agriculture. While migration supports income diversification and asset accumulation, those unable to migrate remain trapped in worsening conditions Drought assessment reveals distinct regional patterns: Comoé, located in the Sudanian zone, experiences less frequent but more intense droughts, whereas Boulkiemdé, in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, endures prolonged and severe droughts. The study highlights the relationship between drought conditions and migration. In 1985, Comoé experienced slightly wet conditions, with a strong positive correlation between SPEI6 and inflows (r=0.81) and SPEI6 and net migration (r=0.80), indicating that wetter conditions were associated with increased migration inflows and a higher net migration rate. Conversely, Boulkiemdé faced drier conditions, with SPI12 showing a strong negative correlation of -0.912 with net migration, suggesting that declining SPI12 values were linked to reduced net migration. Pearson correlation analyses confirm a strong relationship between drought and migration trends. In 1996, the SPEI12 in Comoé showed a moderately negative correlation (-0.68) with inflows, indicating that prolonged droughts were expected to reduce incoming migration. However, migration data revealed an increase in inflows from 15.44% in 1985 to 17.11% in 1996, contradicting this expectation. Similarly, in Boulkiemdé in 2019, the SPI12 exhibited a very strong positive correlation (0.92) with inflows, suggesting that as SPI12 increased, inflows should also rise. Yet, migration data did not align with this trend, as inward migration declined from 22.94% in 2006 to 10.69%. This paradox underscores that while drought conditions influence migration patterns, they do not act in isolation. Instead, internal migration results from a complex interplay of environmental constraints and socio-economic factors, emphasizing the need for a multi-dimensional approach to understanding climate-induced migration dynamics.