Multi-hazard Risks Assessment on the Yields of Maize, Millet, and Cowpea in the Sahel

Abstract

The Sahel region of West Africa is increasingly facing the compounded effects of multiple climate hazards, primarily heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires that occur with greater intensity and frequency due to climate change. These hazards not only act independently but also often intersect spatially and temporally, creating compounded risks that threaten food security, human health, and ecological stability. Despite this reality, most climate risk assessments in the Sahel remain hazard-specific and do not incorporate interactions between hazards or account for socioeconomic vulnerability and limited coping capacity. This study addresses this critical gap by developing an integrated multihazard risk assessment framework tailored to the Sahel. It combines climate risk indices (for example, TX90p, SPI, NDVI, soil moisture), crop-specific exposure data (SPAM2020) and vulnerability indicators (for example, MPI, GII, health access, disaster exposure) to produce high-resolution risk maps for maize, millet, and cowpea, the region’s key staple crops. Using spatial analysis and normalisation techniques, hazard and vulnerability indicators were aggregated and overlayed to calculate composite risk indices. The risk of heatwaves was found to be more severe in southern Niger, eastern Burkina Faso, and northern Nigeria, where extreme temperature events coincide with intense agricultural activity and high social vulnerability. Drought risk was most prominent in semi-arid regions of northern Mali, central Niger, and north central Nigeria. Wildfire risk hotspots emerged mainly in eastern Niger and parts of Burkina Faso, where flammable vegetation, low soil moisture, and repeated droughts converge. The study also revealed stark regional disparities in vulnerability and lack of coping capacity, with areas of elevated poverty, gender inequality, food insecurity, and poor governance that amplify climate-related risks. The resulting risk maps offer practical insights for early warning systems, land use planning, and agricultural adaptation strategies. They highlight not only where hazards are likely to occur but also who is most affected and where institutional support is weakest. This work provides a strong foundation for taking action early, using data to guide decisions, and making sure that all communities are included in the management of climate risks in one of the most vulnerable regions in the world.