Côte d'Ivoire in danger – Forests on borrowed time, future in peril, who will stop the bleeding?

Abstract

Conventional approaches to estimating carbon stocks, which are limited in time and space, are currently insufficient to meet the challenges of climate change and sustainable land management. They do not allow us to look back into the past, nor to project the long-term evolution of landscapes, leaving decision-makers without reliable tools for anticipation or planning. The integrated approach we have developed breaks with traditional static methods. It was tested for the first time in two contrasting ecological zones: the Lamto Scientific Reserve, located in the centre of Côte d'Ivoire in the forest-savannah transition zone (or pre-forest zone), and the Lokoli Eco-Farm, located in the north of the country, in the heart of the sub-Sudanese zone, characterised by savannah formations. This method enables a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of changes in carbon stocks between 1990 and 2100, by combining satellite data, modelling and prospective scenarios. The results obtained are clear: • Between 1990 and the early 2000s, carbon stocks fell sharply, as a result of intense deforestation. Gallery forests and dense semi-deciduous formations have regressed, reducing the sequestration capacity of ecosystems (Figure 1). • From 2012 onwards, a dynamic of natural afforestation emerged. This is expressed by the gradual densification of the savannahs into trees, especially in the transitional formations (open forests, wooded savannahs), where forest cover is gradually regaining in scope. • In 2022, the gallery forests/dense semi-deciduous forests of Lamto show stocks of more than 100 tC/ha, compared to barely 5 tC/ha for the shrub savannahs, i.e. a ratio of more than 20. This strong spatial heterogeneity constitutes a strategic lever for targeting restoration efforts (Figure 1). Projections to 2100, based on contrasting scenarios, reveal two possible trajectories: • Optimistic scenario: the strengthening of conservation policies would allow a continuous increase in carbon stocks, reaching up to 150 tC/ha in some forest areas (Figures 2 and 3). • Pessimistic scenario: in the absence of targeted interventions, woody formations could regress again, causing stocks to fall below 50 tC/ha (Figures 2 and 3). These results show that the adoption of this innovative method is essential to guide public policies on climate, biodiversity and land management. Not only can we measure past and present impacts, but we can also anticipate future trajectories, which is essential if we are to take effective action. These results are not simply ecological indicators: they are decision-making tools. They enable us to anticipate, plan and optimise investments in reforestation, ecosystem protection and carbon recovery. In short, our approach doesn't just measure what has been lost or gained; it sheds light on what can still be saved.