Improving Small Scale Farmers Resilience to Climate Change: Socioeconomic Impacts, Sustainable Systems, and Technological Innovation in Niger and Mali

Abstract

Climate change is recognized as one of the global challenges affecting agricultural productivity and food security. In Sahel, agriculture is sensitive to climatic hazards. This research aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on agricultural yields, the efficiency of climate information systems at the small-scale farmers’ level, the sustainability of millet intensification options, and barriers and enablers of climate-smart agriculture. We obtained meteorological data from national meteorological agency and agricultural yield data from ministry of agriculture. We characterize climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, length of dry spells…). A principal component analysis determined the relationship between climate parameters and agricultural yield and field survey comparesd long term climatic data and farmers’ perception. For rainfall forecasts and alerts, we collected the 2022 data from the ‘SMS Sandji’ platform in Mali (Nara) and the national meteorological agency alert database in Niger (Zinder). We also conducted field suvey to evaluate socio-economic impact of the use of climate information system. The results obtained indicate a concordance between farmers’ perception on climate change and meteorological observations concerning the irregularities of rainfall (83.3% of respondents) except in Zinder where meteorological data shows an increase in rainfall (+122mm), the increase of maximum and minimum temperature (+1.01˚C in Maradi, +0.75 ˚C in Zinder, +0.85 ˚C in Diffa; 90% of respondents), and the delay on rainy season onset (97%) over the past 40 years. Both seasonal and daily climate forecasts have high to moderate accuracy from 0.7 to 0.58 for CSI and 0.11 to 0.43 for BS index in Niger, and 0.94 to 0.91 for CSI, and 0.06 to 0.25 for BS in Mali. ANOVA also reveals with high significance (p value=0.0001) that the utilization of climate information plays a crucial role in improving farmers’ average financial incomes with FCFA 24,943 per hectare at season onset to FCFA 15,355 per hectare during the cropping season, and FCFA 6204 per hectare at the end of the season, depending on the period when the information was used. The System Intensification Analysis Framework reveals that the system combining direct sowing mode with mineral fertilizer micro-dosing, and the one with organic micro-dosing show the best performance regarding almost all sustainability indicators. Farmers have adopted measures to strengthen resilience of their farming systems such as the farmers-managed natural regeneration (88.5%), the use of improved varieties (84.6%), integrated soil fertility management options (75.9%), irrigation (41.7%), and reforestation (37.9%). The findings of this research contribute to the broader understanding of climate change impacts and agriculture in Sahel.