Prediction of climate-sensitive respiratory diseases in West Africa using climate information: case of asthma in northern (Savanes region) and southern part (Grand-Lomé region) of Togo

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between climate and asthma to improve monitoring and healthcare management. The study focuses on three areas: examining the link between climatic and environmental variables and asthma based on statistical correlation, assessing the perceptions of healthcare practitioners and asthma patients through questionnaire and interview, and predicting asthma occurrences using climatic data. The research is based on five years of data (2018-2022) from two regions in Togo: The Savanes region (northern Sahelian zone) and the Grand-Lomé region (southern coastal zone). Key findings included the identification of significant correlations between climate factors and asthma. In the Savanes region, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), minimum temperatures (TMIN), and wind speed were strongly linked to asthma. In Grand-Lomé, maximum humidity (UMAX) and insolation were key factors. Asthma prevalence was higher in the coastal region (274.8 per 100,000) compared to the Savanes (64.88 per 100,000), with exacerbations occurring in the colder, dry months from december to february. Patient surveys revealed that despite 60% regularly seeking medical care, financial and cultural barriers limited access for some. Among healthcare professionals, 39.2% had training in climate change, but many were unaware of national asthma management guidelines that integrate climate factors. An impact chain analysis demonstrated how climate hazards like temperature variations and pollution exacerbate asthma risk, particularly for vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly. Predictive models, including Random Forest and Polynomial Regression, were developed to forecast asthma cases, with Random Forest selected as the most effective model for both regions due to its ability to capture seasonal variations. The study recommends better integration of climate considerations into health strategies, including early warning systems and public awareness campaigns