Resilience to Food Insecurity of Rural Households in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin in a Context of Climate Change

Abstract

This study analyzed the resilience to food insecurity of rural households in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin in response to climate-related risks. Cross-sectional data from the National Food Security, Nutrition, and Resilience Survey conducted by the Executive Secretariat of the National Council for Food Security of Senegal, covering 3,100 households from 19 departments of the Groundnut Basin, were obtained in addition to relevant climate variables derived from CHIRPS and ERA5 datasets from 1991-2020. The study employs three key methodologies: the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) approach to assess the impact of crop diversification on food security and welfare, the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA-II) to measure household resilience, and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) combined with the Dose-Response Function to estimate the relationship between resilience and food security outcomes. The results indicate that total seasonal precipitation and maximum temperatures positively influence the yields of groundnuts, millet, and maize, with other weather factors exerting varied effects across the Groundnut Basin. Crop diversification significantly improves household welfare and mitigates climate-related risks. Access to essential services, assets, and adaptive capacity are key resilience determinants. Also, higher Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) positively influences food and nutrition security indicators (Food Consumption Score (FCS) and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS)). Female-headed households demonstrate greater resilience than male-headed households. The analysis further reveals that these households benefit more from resilience-building efforts but face higher vulnerability when such measures are absent. The findings recommend enhancing climate adaptation strategies, promoting crop diversification, and strengthening female-headed households' access to resources to improve resilience and food security outcomes.