System Dynamics Modelling for Energy Planning and Carbon-Dioxide Emissions: A Case of the Nigerian Power Sector

Abstract

Energy is essential to supporting our daily activities; it is a main driver of economic development and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Due to associated complexities and uncertainties, decision makers and energy planners are facing increased pressure to effectively address energy related challenges, including greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, in the sector. The study seeks to bridge the electricity supply-demand gap by developing a system dynamics (SD) model for the Nigerian power sector (NPS) in its long term performance, 2010 to 2050. Using the developed SD model, the following were evaluated: i) the contribution of the Mambilla hydropower (MMPH) upon its completion at the horizon of 2024; ii) the contributions of renewable and non-renewable energy capacities under-construction; and iii) the carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents emissions of the contributions. These were done under six policy scenarios. The factors assessed were the: 1) Transmission losses (Tx); 2) Time to Adjust Capacity (TAC); 3) Population Growth Rate (PGR); and 4) Capacities under construction. Thus, results showed that the completion of existing project and the MMPH would make the NPS 71% energy secured at the end of simulation period (2050). This was achieved as a result of Tx reduced by 0.5%, earlier TAC (15years), and a PGR of 2%. Results also revealed a paradigm shift in CO2 reduction in the planning process considered by the study in contrast to the existing generations. It was advocated from the study that for the NPS to be totally out of energy poverty, it must decentralize the energy generation means and review its rural electrification policy. Emphasis should be put on harnessing grass root energy resources and more renewable energy in its energy mix. Also, capability of SD is affirmed by properly capturing feedbacks, delays, and other complexities in the NPS.