Abstract:
—Policy guides decision. This paper examines policy in
the Nigerian Electric Power Sector (NEPS) to cut transmission
losses (TL) and improve capacity factor (CF) to 5% and 90%,
respectively. A System Dynamics (SD) model developed in
STELLA software package was employed to analyze this policy.
Secondary data were sourced from: a) National Control Centre
(NCC); b) Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC);
and c) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Two scenarios were
considered, the pre-privatized and improved scenarios. Results
showed that at TL of 5% and CF of 90% i) electricity outages
would be reduced by about 17.84% from 2010 to 2050; ii) over the
study period a capacity of 473 MW (about 94.6 MW/year) would
be fed back into the system; iii) transmission losses of 3,400 GWh
would have been curtailed by 2050; and iv) cutting down TL and
improving CF alone in NEPS will not totally curtail electricity
outages and deficiencies in NEPS. Therefore, the study
recommends that increasing generating capacity (MW) would go
a long way in curbing electricity deficiencies. Renewable energy
sources could be a better choice. Further studies are recommended
in this regard. It was proven by the study that a system dynamics
modelling approach is suitable for examining long-term behavior
and dynamic feedback in Nigeria’s electricity sector.
