Abstract:
This paper aims to test empirically, the direction of causality between climate
change, agriculture valued added, Food production (the proxy for food availability), and economic growth in the Gambia. This study employed annual data
which were collected for the period 1960–2017 and analyzed these data using
the ARDL approach and the granger causality framework. The empirical evidence shows that: (1) the short-run and long-run ARDL model confirmed that
the growth of fish production and growth of livestock production in the Gambia
have significant positive impacts on the growth of GDP; (2) the short-run and
long-run ARDL model indicated that growth of food import and growth of agriculture have negative impacts on the growth of GDP; (3) Granger causality analysis between the lagged values of growth of GDP and lagged values of growth
of Food availability indicators has unidirectional relationships; (4) lagged values of the growth of GDP Granger cause lagged values of growth of agriculture
but lagged values of growth of agriculture do not garger cause lagged values of
growth of GDP, which suggested an indirect relationship; (5) the relationship
between the lagged values of growth of crop production and lagged values of
growth of agriculture indicated a bidirectional relationship. Finally, an important indication is established on the role of fish production, livestock production,
climate change, and crop production to control food availability and economic
growth in the Gambia.
