Abstract:
Climate change impacts have been the major
subject of discussion for scientists from different fields of
study, including the agriculture sector. This study
investigates the effects and implications of future climate
change on rice production in the Lower River Region of
The Gambia. The study seeks the following specific
objectives: i) Analyse temperature and rainfall trends over
Lower River Region; ii) Determine the relationship
between temperature, rainfalls and rice production in the
study area; and iii) Simulate temperature, rainfalls and rice
production as well as the existing relationship among those
parameters in the future using seasonality. The trend was
examined after an exploratory data analysis, a unit root test
and a correlation analysis. The study revealed an increase
in maximum temperature (Tmax) and a variation in
minimum temperature (Tmin) where the increase is not
constant over 1981-2015. Also, the harvested area,
production and rainfall increased while yield decreased.
The data was extrapolated to 2035 using a VARMA
statistical forecast method. Ordinary Least Squares and
robust linear regression models were applied to find out the
future implications (2035 and subsequent near years) of the
climate parameters on rice production using 1981 to
2015-year series. The model shows that by 2035, yields
will negatively be affected by the increase in Tmax and
positively by the very little variation in Tmin. But the risk
is that the ratio is not balanced, the damages of Tmax will
be greater than the good productions of Tmin. The Tmin
will also decrease as a general trend occasioning severe
conditions for rice production in the region. This reveals
the effects of climate change on rice production even
though the relationship between climatic and rice variables
remains low, because of the numerous parameters in rice
production. This calls for an urgent need to improve rice
varieties that will thrive well in the anticipated new
climatic conditions (high yielding, heat tolerant, saline
tolerant and early maturing) and promotion of good
cultural practices that save water to cope with future
climate. This study suggests that more studies should
include other parameters of rice production for improved
predictions.
