Abstract:
This work focuses on impacts of climate change on Ouémé River discharge at Bonou outlet
based on four global climate models (GCM) over Ouémé catchment from 1971 to 2050. Empirical
quantile mapping method is used for bias correction of GCM. Furthermore, twenty-five rain gauges
were selected among which are three synoptic stations. The semi-distributed model HEC-HMS
(Hydrologic Modeling System from Hydrologic Engineering Center) is used to simulate runo .
As results, HEC-HMS showed ability to simulate runo while taking into account land use and
cover change. In fact, Kling–Gupta E ciency (KGE) coe cient was 0.94 and 0.91 respectively in
calibration and validation. Moreover, Ouémé River discharge is projected to decrease about 6.58 m3/s
under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5) while an insignificant increasing trend
is found under RCP 8.5. Therefore, water resource management infrastructure, especially dam
construction, has to be developed for water shortage prevention. In addition, it is essential to account
for uncertainties when designing such sensitive infrastructure for flood management.
