Abstract:
The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES project is assessed
over six meteorological stations in Côte d’Ivoire. The ensemble mean of the models is also used for
the prediction of climate change over West Africa. The study focused on two periods: the period
1995-2005, the present-day simulations, is used to evaluate the skills of the models over the
country and the years 2010-2013, for assessment of the future climate change scenario used. The
results show that the skills of the models vary from one station to another and from one season to
another. None of the models considered, presents an excellent performance over the entire country
and in all the seasons. Generally, the ensemble mean of all the models presents better results
when compared with the observation. These results suggest that the choice of any model for study
over the country may depend on the focus of interest: intensity or variability of the rain and also
on area of interest. The projection for 2020-2040, future climate change over West Africa shows
that the Sahel exhibits a tendency to be drier while wetter Guinean coast is observed.
