Abstract:
The availability of water resources in a reservoir for electricity generation is strongly linked
to climate and weather conditions. Also, the use of these water resources is influenced by
the population size as well as anthropogenic activities. This research attempts to assess the
combined effects of (i) climate change (CC), (ii) land use/land cover change (LULCC),
and (iii) development (Dev) conditions on water resources and hydropower generation
(HPGen) using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Downscaling
Experiment (CORDEX) under the Representative Concentrated Pathways (RCP):
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The RCMs considered are: CanRCM, CCLM, and WRF being drived
by CanESM2, CNRM-CERFACS, and NorESM1, respectively. The Water Evaluation and
Planning model (WEAP) tool is used to simulate the water availability and HPGen in the
Mono basin under present and future conditions. The ensemble mean of the three-climate
dataset analysis reveals that the temperature is projected to increase significantly while the
precipitation change is uncertain under both RCPs in the near (2020–2050) and the far
(2070–2090) futures. These changes in climate variables consequently affected simulated
water availability for different water consumption sectors especially the HPGen in the near
and far futures. Moreover, the Dev was found to exacerbate the burden that constitutes the
CC for water availability and HPGen. Nevertheless, LULCC associated with either CC or
both CC and Dev were projected by all the RCMs and their ensemble mean to reduce this
burden. However, its side effects namely reservoir siltation and sedimentation need to be
deeply investigated.
