Abstract:
e projection of the future climate changes is of paramount importance inasmuch as it contributes to provide useful information
for adaptation planning worldwide to local scales. is study investigated the future changes using four temperature related indices
based on an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations at 0.44° × 0.44° of resolution under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
ese indices indicate moderate extremes over Côte d’Ivoire. e results show an increase in the warm extreme indices such as the
warm spell days index (HWFI), very warm days frequency index (TX90P), and the warm nights frequency index (TN90P) over
the entire country under both emission scenarios. e increase in these indices was higher under RCP8.5 and reached 85, 72, and
90% for HWFI, TX90P, and TN90P respectively. In addition, the magnitude of the changes is relevant along the coastal areas in the
2031–2060 and 2071–2100 periods. Moreover, the intra period extreme temperature range (ETR) shows future decrease following a
south-north gradient with values in the range [−0.5; 1.5°C] over the country during January–March (JFM) and October–December
(OND) seasons whereas an increase (~0.5°C) is projected for April–June (AMJ) and July–September (JAS) seasons, particularly in
the central and northern parts. e minimum temperature increases faster than the maximum, except in AMJ and JAS in the central
and northern regions. On the other hand, the changes in the indices based on the mean values of the reference period (1976–2005)
are in concordance to the expected warming at the end of the twenty-«rst century with important trends. e projected changes
are, however, subject to uncertainties, which are higher under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, these changes are
meaningful as all the 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations agree to an increase of warm extreme temperature.
