Potential Impact of Solar Geoengineering on Renewable Energy over West Africa

Abstract

Renewable energy resources can be sensitive to future climate change. Geoengineering is suggested as a potential way to reduce the climate impacts of global warming. Here, we assess the potential impact of a solar geoengineering approach on renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind energy over West Africa. This research is one of the first studies in Africa to investigate the potential impact of solar geoengineering activities on renewable energy using state-of-the-art GeoMIP climate models to contributing to the current research portfolio on the future of renewable energy. Three CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) under climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were used in this study. We also used the corresponding simulations from GeoMIP6 (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), in particular the G6sulfur experiment, where sulphur particles are introduced into the upper atmosphere. The projections focus on the far future (2070-2099). The performance of the different models and their ensemble mean (Rmean) is first evaluated using the ERA5 reanalysis data for the period (1985-2014). The simulations with their Rmean reproduce well the pattern of observation of different variables with notable biases. The results show that G6sulfur tends to reduce temperature and wind speed but increase solar irradiance over West Africa. In addition, the solar PV potential increases and the wind power density decreases with G6sulfur experiment compared to the SSP5-8.5 scenarios. There are still differences in the projected changes in renewable energy and its different drivers, such as in the case of West Africa, suggesting that further refinement of the model is needed before attempting to draw conclusions on potential changes through geoengineering simulations.