Assessing the Impact of Climate Extreme Events and Conflicts on Internal Migration in Burkina Faso: the Case of Internal Displacement

Abstract

Climate extreme events (floods, storms) and conflicts are still major problems for the sedentary life of the Sahelian populations. In recent years, floods, storms and conflicts (violent, non-violent or demonstrations) have been alarming in Burkina Faso. This study aims to assess the impact of extreme weather events and conflicts on internal displacement in Burkina Faso. The study used monthly data on floods, storms, violent and non-violent conflicts and demonstrations from 2018 to 2022. We used the dynamic modelling approach (ARDL) to identify and model short and long run relationships. Internal displacement forecasts for 2025 were made using the ARIMA modelling method. The results showed that, unlike storms, floods have affected all regions of Burkina Faso. Demonstrations are little known, whereas violent and non-violent conflicts are better known in the Sahel and Eastern regions and are spreading rapidly to other regions. The ARDL results showed that in the short run, the number of violent events, demonstrations and storms have a positive effect when they occur, while floods have a negative effect on the displacement of people. In the long run, violent events, storms and floods have a positive effect on the displacement of people in Burkina Faso. Forecasts show that the number of displaced people will rise to 2.6 million by early 2025. Conflict management, therefore, needs to be taken seriously so that the number of displaced persons can be considerably reduced. In addition, climate measures and actions must be taken to reduce the effects of storms and floods on people’s displacement.