Economic Analysis of Climate Change Induced Resource Scarcity and Armed Conflicts in Niger

Abstract

This dissertation aims to contribute to our understanding of armed conflicts’ triggers between actors (State and Terrorists; Farmers and Herders) in Niger and how to resolve such conflict(s) under climate change. The relationship between climate change and violent conflict is complex. Researchers find that conflicts are increasingly concentrated in the poorest portion of the world’s countries. Niger as one of the poorest countries is ran-fed agriculturally based economy. Though, climatic conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient for conflicts to occur, but changes in climatic conditions could have a measurable impact on the probability and intensity of conflict, holding other conflict-related factors fixed. The empirical challenge addresses by this dissertation is to quantify this effect in Niger. The work aimed specifically to i) Estimate the impact of climate variability and associated agricultural income losses on the likelihood of outbreaks of armed conflict; ii) Analyse the effect of environmental resource constraints on farmer-herder conflicts escalation in Niger and iii) Evaluate conflict management and resolution techniques. To tackle the objectives of this dissertation, we employed quantitative techniques using primary and secondary data. The theoretical model developed by Chassang and Padro-i-Miquel (2009) is used to illustrate potential channels of violent conflict between actors. In the original model, the authors considered two actors who have to decide whether to engage in costly conflict and redistribution when bargaining fails. For the specific objective two, we used a Heckman two stages model with primary data (collected on 3000 households). In studying conflict resolution, we used qualitative (Isak analytical tools allowed us to evaluate conflict resolution techniques) techniques. The analysis supports the argument that agricultural resource is affected by climate variability. Our results suggest that climate variability, measured as deviations in temperature and precipitation from their past (1990-2016), affects armed conflict through agricultural income. When Instrumental variable method is applied, we find support in our data for the argument that climatic variability affects conflict onset not only through agricultural income changes. The findings also suggest that bad governance affect positively and significantly the probability of conflict escalation. In summary, results suggest that climate variability affects significantly conflict in Niger through agricultural income and even directly (when using instrumental variable method). Climate change in environmentally fragile Sahel communities is one key factor driving transnational terrorism and inter-ethnic fighting, both of which remain serious downside risks to security in Niger.