Abstract:
Climate Variability and Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) profoundly
impact ecosystems and livelihoods globally, particularly affecting those with
limited adaptation strategies. Such changes frequently drive migration from
vulnerable regions, exemplified by northern Ghana, where reliance on rain-fed
agriculture and natural resources makes communities susceptible. This research
explores the intricate interplay between climate variability, LULCC, and the
patterns of North-South Migration in Ghana. It offers a comprehensive
understanding of these interconnected phenomena and their implications.
Northern Ghana, heavily reliant on agriculture, grapples with adverse weather
conditions marked by erratic Rainfall, rising temperatures, prolonged droughts,
and relentless harmattan winds. These environmental challenges not only imperil
the region’s agrarian economy but also the livelihoods of its inhabitants. A
significant consequence of this climatic turmoil has been the escalating trend of
North-South Migration, with a noticeable surge in participation among young
people and females, traditionally underrepresented in this movement. The study
rigorously analyses climate data from 1990 to 2020 to explore these trends,
employing the Mann-Kendall trend analysis and standardized precipitation
evapotranspiration index. These methods assess climate variability and drought
severity trends in northern Ghana. In addition, Landsat images from the United
States Geological Survey (USGS) for four distinct epochs (1990, 2000, 2010,
and 2020) are classified using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and post-processed
in QGIS to generate LULC(C) maps for the region. The research utilises a
mixed-method approach, combining interviews and perception surveys
conducted among migrants in southern Ghana and potential migrants in northern
Ghana, employing digitized questionnaires via the Open Data Kit (ODK). These
surveys investigate perceptions regarding climate variability, land use, land
cover change, and North-South Migration patterns. The climate variability
analysis consistently reveals a troubling decrease in Rainfall during critical
farming months, exacerbated by rising temperatures and intensified drought
severity, particularly in the last decade. These scientific findings corroborate the
perceptions of local farmers, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures.
The analysis of LULCC patterns in the region underscores cropland as the
dominant land use, accompanied by a noticeable expansion of shrub/grassland
and woodlands, alongside a concerning reduction in water bodies. Also, the
LULCC maps indicate the conversion of croplands to shrub/grassland and
woodland, signalling potential abandonment. These visible transformations are
directly attributed to human activities identified by farming communities, further
accentuating the need for sustainable land management practices. The results
illuminate the complex interplay of push and pull factors driving North-South
Migration. Climate variability and LULCC emerge as prominent push factors,
while socio-economic considerations, particularly for female and less-educated
migrants, act as attractive forces. In conclusion, this research unravels the
intricate interplay between Climate Variability, LULCC, and North-South
Migration patterns in Ghana.
Description:
A Thesis submitted to the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use and the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Land Use