Assessing the Patterns of Climate Variability, Land Use Land Cover Change and North-South Migration in Ghana

Abstract

Climate Variability and Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) profoundly impact ecosystems and livelihoods globally, particularly affecting those with limited adaptation strategies. Such changes frequently drive migration from vulnerable regions, exemplified by northern Ghana, where reliance on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources makes communities susceptible. This research explores the intricate interplay between climate variability, LULCC, and the patterns of North-South Migration in Ghana. It offers a comprehensive understanding of these interconnected phenomena and their implications. Northern Ghana, heavily reliant on agriculture, grapples with adverse weather conditions marked by erratic Rainfall, rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and relentless harmattan winds. These environmental challenges not only imperil the region’s agrarian economy but also the livelihoods of its inhabitants. A significant consequence of this climatic turmoil has been the escalating trend of North-South Migration, with a noticeable surge in participation among young people and females, traditionally underrepresented in this movement. The study rigorously analyses climate data from 1990 to 2020 to explore these trends, employing the Mann-Kendall trend analysis and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. These methods assess climate variability and drought severity trends in northern Ghana. In addition, Landsat images from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for four distinct epochs (1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020) are classified using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and post-processed in QGIS to generate LULC(C) maps for the region. The research utilises a mixed-method approach, combining interviews and perception surveys conducted among migrants in southern Ghana and potential migrants in northern Ghana, employing digitized questionnaires via the Open Data Kit (ODK). These surveys investigate perceptions regarding climate variability, land use, land cover change, and North-South Migration patterns. The climate variability analysis consistently reveals a troubling decrease in Rainfall during critical farming months, exacerbated by rising temperatures and intensified drought severity, particularly in the last decade. These scientific findings corroborate the perceptions of local farmers, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures. The analysis of LULCC patterns in the region underscores cropland as the dominant land use, accompanied by a noticeable expansion of shrub/grassland and woodlands, alongside a concerning reduction in water bodies. Also, the LULCC maps indicate the conversion of croplands to shrub/grassland and woodland, signalling potential abandonment. These visible transformations are directly attributed to human activities identified by farming communities, further accentuating the need for sustainable land management practices. The results illuminate the complex interplay of push and pull factors driving North-South Migration. Climate variability and LULCC emerge as prominent push factors, while socio-economic considerations, particularly for female and less-educated migrants, act as attractive forces. In conclusion, this research unravels the intricate interplay between Climate Variability, LULCC, and North-South Migration patterns in Ghana.