An Appraisal of the Trends in Land Use/Cover Change Following Climate Variability in Ogou District, Togo

Abstract

This study conducted in Ogou District (Togo, West Africa) attempted to bring out scientific evidence of climate variability/change in the study area which is the major food crops production zone for the Plateaux Region, the ‘food reservoir’ for the whole country. Data for this study were collected from Direction du Service National de la Meteorologie du Togo, Landsat downloaded images and sourced through household survey by individual interviews among two hundred and forty seven (247) farmer households stratified and randomly selected in the study area. The study had three (3) specific objectives namely; firstly, analysis of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature data, secondly satellite image analysis and finally questionnaire administration to farmers on their perception of climate variability/change. Analysis of variance at 95% confidence level was ran in SPSS 20.0 version to confirm trends and differences observed over the two climate variables. ENVI 5.1 and Idrisi 17.0 (The Selva Edition) were used for satellite image processing and future land use/cover change predictions. Arc Map 10 was used in mapping land use/cover of different years and EpiData 3.1 and Microsoft Excel 2013 were used for questionnaire results computation and processing. Results showed that minimum temperature in Ogou District significantly (P<=0.05) increased from 21.5˚C to 22.0˚C and maximum temperature from 31.0˚C to 31.8˚C, both over 40 years (1974-2013). Mean annual rainfall distribution shows a bimodal rainfall pattern with two peaks: July with 197.8mm and September with 203.5mm. The break in rainfall in August with 183.2mm indicates little dry spell over Ogou District. The main challenge today to farmers in the district is rainfall distribution over the growing season and not the amount of total annual rainfall. Land use/cover change is in a dynamic transition at relatively high rates from natural vegetation (forest and savanna) to farmlands and to buil-up areas. If this changing trend is maintained, only 44.93% natural vegetation, 30.22% farmlands and 24.30% built-up area are expected to persist at the end of the next ten years (2014-2023). Most respondents (61%) to the questionnaire were fairly informed about climate variability/change causes and impacts on their economic activities. However, they were not able to link their farming practices to any of the causes of climate variability/change. Furthermore, land tenure system did not facilitate reforestation of semi-degraded agricultural lands in the district. The study therefore recommends that appropriate strategies to mitigate effects of climate change, enhance sustainable productivity, balance the land use/cover types against irrational expansion trends and protect the environment, need to be advanced in Ogou District to maintain a planned rate of migration of farmlands into forests or marginal areas, or built-up areas into farmlands or forests. In addition, more research need to be conducted on the underlying causes of the uneven and unpredictable yearly distribution of rainfall in the study area in order to help farmers adapt their cropping practices to this new rainfall patterns in Ogou District.