Abstract:
This study is presenting results from the analysis of land-cover dynamics in
the Kara River basin from 1972 to 2000 using remote sensing and geographic information
system (GIS) techniques. Multi-temporal satellite images – Landsat MSS (1972), TM
(1987) and ETM+ (2000) were processed using object-oriented classifi cation and postclassifi
cation comparison methods. The classifi cation results showed a good agreement
with overall accuracies of 77.1% for 1972, 85.34% for 1987 and 88.22% for 2000, the
respective Kappa statistics being 0.7, 0.81 and 0.85. Change assessment showed that
the basin has experienced important changes in land cover with signifi cant decrease in
natural vegetation. Agricultural extension and deforestation appear to be the dominant
driving forces. In fact, agricultural land has doubled between 1972 and 2000 by increasing
from 19.45% to 43.59% of the total basin area while savannah decreased from 63.41%
to 45.19%. Forest land increased by 1.63% from 1972 to 1987 but showed a decrease
of 5.87% from 1987 to 2000, while woody savannah decreased by 3.59% and human
settlements increased during the same period. The analysis of land cover transition showed
that important changes have occurred between 1987 and 2000. The results of this study will
be useful for follow-up research such as hydrological and landscape processes modelling in
the basin but also many applications including the biomass assessment for greenhouse gases
inventories, the REDD+ (Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradationplus)
project, the national programs for protected areas redefi nition, vegetation resources
conservation and sustainable land management, the vulnerability and adaptation studies
etc. . Nevertheless, further investigation integrating climatic, hydrological, spatial statistics
and socio-economic models would help to better understand and quantify the relationships
between different driving forces and their contributions to the changes.
